Bubble Watch 2023 – Champ Week

It’s finally Selection Sunday and the bubble picture is as clear as it’s going to get, now we wait. In my mind we have 4 spots truly up for grabs, and I have Oklahoma St, NC State and Arizona St as 3 of those 4. The final spot seems like an almost impossible decision, with teams like Rutgers/Nevada/Pitt/Vandy as the main 4 fighting over it. Either way those are the top 7 teams I see as fighting for those last 4 spots in Dayton, with a number of variations to be found depending on the prognosticator you choose to follow. Oklahoma St/Nevada/Vandy seem to be the more consensus picks to be the 3 to miss out of that group. In my opinion, which you can find below in further detail, a team like Oklahoma St deserves a spot more than Rutgers/Pitt due to their insane schedule and the 4 wins against top-30 teams. Pitt has 1. Rutgers has 4 losses in Q3, the Pokes have 1. There’s ample reason to think Oklahoma St should be in, and if they don’t hear their name called they are the 1 team I would join in outcry. Either way, the storylines are plentiful as we sit just a few hours from the Selection Show. No more bubble teams or bid stealers remain, so this is it. Hope you’ve enjoyed, and drop a comment on your thoughts on those last 4 in.   


–ACC–

Locks:

Virginia    MIAMI   duke

On the Right Track:

Teetering:

Pitt: 22-11 (14-6) — Q1: (4-4) Q2: (3-5) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (10-1) SOS: (92) TW’s (4)

pittThe Panthers got absolutely boat raced against Duke on Thursday and frankly didn’t look much like a tournament team given Duke is sitting somewhere in the 6-7 seed range. That’s how they’d perform as a 10 or 11? Not a great look. Beyond that the resumé is pretty thin, with a 7-9 record in Q1/2 and their best win being 23rd ranked Virginia I think best case for Pitt as it stands right now is to end up in Dayton. When you look at teams behind or right with them, you’re looking at UNC, Rutgers, Utah St, Mississippi St, Clemson, Penn St, Arizona St and Oregon who are all still alive with chances to add to their resumé. Ultimately, I hope the committee looks at that putrid SOS metric and actually sticks to what they say matters, and that’s the SOS and quality wins, which Pitt lacks. Pitt should be in the NIT most likely, but there’s always a chance they benefit from the ACC label. (Mar. 9)

N.C. State: 23-10 (12-8) — Q1: (1-6) Q2: (7-4) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (10-0) SOS: (75) TW’s (2)

ncstateThe Wolfpack went into their matchup with Clemson on Thursday feeling pretty comfortable and it showed as they got absolutely smoked by the Tigers and now present the committee with a 1-6 Q1 record and overall 8-10 against Q1/2. What they have over teams like Pitt and Clemson is 0 losses outside of Q1/2, so that fact will probably be what keeps them in the dance despite that ugly performance against a fellow bubble team. They could end up in Dayton, especially with Penn St and Utah St adding wins and looking for more. Many have them ahead of teams like Mississippi St, who happens to have 4 Q1 wins and has played a much more difficult schedule. It’s close, but it’s hard to put a team has only 1 top-25 win and 4 losses to sub-50 ranked teams. I have them in Dayton, but they may avoid it and be on the 11 or 10 seed line thanks to the clean sheet in Q3/4. Either way, I don’t think they’ll be missing out on the field entirely. (Mar. 9)

Clemson: 23-10 (14-6) — Q1: (4-4) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (7-2) Q4: (9-2) SOS: (107) TW’s (3)

clemsonClemson’s final pitch to the committee was to get dressed down by Virginia and now their fate rests in the hands of the committee. In my opinion, they haven’t done enough, with those 4 losses in Q3/4 so right now they’re still on the outside looking in for me. The loss to Virginia dropped them to 7-6 in Q1, which isn’t horrible on this year’s bubble, but those 4 bad losses are going to haunt them. It’s a weird resumé to try and place, but at the end of the day they have 1 top-30 win, and have 4 losses to teams sub-150 (3 of which were sub-230). No matter how much Jay Bilas claims his magic eye tells him Clemson is a tourney team, they just haven’t consistently proven it. On any given night many teams have looked like tournament teams, the selections are about consistency and the totality of a season. Thankfully, Mr. Bilas will not be part of the Selection process, and I’m fairly confident those that are will not be including Clemson in the field of 68. (Mar. 10)

North Carolina: 20-13 (11-9) — Q1: (1-9) Q2: (6-4) Q3: (7-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (52) TW’s (3)

uncWell the Tar Heels are pretty much out of it at this point after the loss to Virginia. They are 7-13 in Q1/2 and while they don’t have any bad losses per se they just haven’t amassed enough wins to get in. Now, the committee of course could shock us all and put them in but I wouldn’t bet on it. Last year there was 1 team in the field with only 1 Q1 win, Wyoming in Dayton. While this year’s bubble is pretty weak, they are just behind so many teams in my mind right now I just don’t see it happening. From the Natty to the NIT for the pre-season #1 team. Haven’t seen anything like it. (Mar. 9)


–Big Ten–

Locks:

purdue-4 iu northwestern    marylandiowa sparty   illinois-4  Pennst

Teetering:

Rutgers: 19-14 (10-10) — Q1: (5-7) Q2: (5-3) Q3: (2-4) Q4: (7-0) SOS: (44) TW’s (5)

rutgersThat’s a wrap on Rutgers as they fell to Purdue in what was an all-out war. This is the most intriguing resumé heading into Selection Sunday for me, as they have a gigantic road W over Purdue who is a top-5 team, and overall 5 Q1 wins and are 10-10 in Q1/2. However, that 2-4 Q3 record is the most disgusting piece of a resumé on this entire bubble watch. Plus, you have the 3-7 record since Mawot Mag went down, a time period where they picked up several of those ugly losses. I don’t think the new Rutgers without Mag is deserving of a tourney bid, and frankly the resumé as a whole with those ugly losses isn’t that great either. I think you could make an argument for them over one team I have in and that’s Nevada. They have better wins than Nevada, but still the Wolfpack are 11-2 in Q3 compared to 2-4. That’s ugly. Throw in the fact Nevada is 8-8 in Q1/2 and the glaring difference is Rutgers’ worse Q3 record. I was one of few people to have them out heading into today, so I’m willing to admit I could be wrong, I just don’t see how they’re ahead of teams like Oklahoma St or Arizona St. I have Nevada as the last team in, Rutgers the first team out. Either way, it’s fair to say it’s going to be a nervy Selection Sunday for the Scarlet Knights. (Mar. 10)

Wisconsin: 17-14 (9-11) — Q1: (6-7) Q2: (5-6) Q3: (1-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (13) TW’s (5)

wisconsinThe Badgers had a chance to really put themselves in good position to be dancing had they just beaten Ohio St, but of course they did not and now they likely are NIT bound. Now, the committee could surprise people in theory and put them in somehow but I just don’t see it with all of these losses. It’s not an easy team to leave out because they’ve proven they can beat really good teams, with 6 Q1 wins, which is more than all of those ACC teams by a mile. It’s just the below .500 record in Q2/3 games that makes you feel they haven’t done enough. If that Q3 says 2-0 and not 1-1, they look so much better. But you can’t hang your hat on SOS and quality wins if you’re also dropping games to Minnesota. Not to mention the 6 Q2 losses which is nearly as ugly. They do have a 45th ranked SOR though which is better than Pitt, UNC and Clemson so who knows. Let’s say I’d be surprised but not totally shocked if they get in. (Mar. 8)

Michigan: 17-14 (11-9) — Q1: (3-12) Q2: (5-2) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (4-1) SOS: (27) TW’s (7)

michigan

Michigan finished the season with 3 straight losses, capping it off with a double digit loss to Rutgers in their Big Ten tourney opener. They had a chance to play themselves in but I think it’s all but over for Michigan. I don’t really see a scenario in which they make the dance but I’m not going to claim to be all-knowing so we’ll keep the Wolverines here until it’s official. I just don’t view 3-12 in Q1 as good enough and while they have a much better record against bad teams than a Clemson or Rutgers for example, they just couldn’t pick up enough wins over quality teams. 8-14 in Q1/2, even in a weak bubble year, isn’t going to get it done. Allow me to be the first to welcome Michigan to the NIT.  (Mar. 9)


–Big 12–

Locks:

kansastexas    baylor    kstate   iowast tcuwvu

Teetering:

Oklahoma St: 18-15 (8-10) — Q1: (6-12) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (6) TW’s (4)

okstateIt’s just my opinion but even with a 15th loss coming at the hands of Texas I think Oklahoma St should be in the field. Yes the record at 18-15 is ugly, but they have 6 Q1 wins and are 18-8 against teams not named Kansas/Texas/Baylor. Those are top-14 teams, and there are several teams on this bubble who haven’t even played a top-14 team all season (hello ACC). The committee has stated that SOS and beating quality teams are the most important categories (not the only ones of course) but the Pokes have 4 wins over top-30 teams. Teams like Clemson/N.C. State/Pitt have just 1 a piece, so if they are sticking to what they’ve said publicly then Oklahoma St should be in the field. It might be Dayton, but either way I expect to hear Oklahoma St on Selection Sunday. (Mar. 9)


–Big East–

Locks:

marquettexavier uconn   creighton providence

On the Right Track: N/A

Teetering: N/A


–Pac-12–

Locks:

arizona  ucla  usc

Teetering:

Arizona St: 22-12 (11-9) — Q1: (5-6) Q2: (4-5) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (8-1) SOS (54) TW’s (3)

azstateWith 5 Q1 wins and a relatively clean Q3/4 record I think Arizona St should be in Dayton. They are fighting for spots with the ACC teams, Rutgers and Nevada, but ultimately I think they have the highest quality resumé of all of them. 9-11 in Q1/2 isn’t horrible, in fact it’s better than some teams I have in the field ahead of the Sun Devils, it’s just their SOS and metrics that are holding them back. Ultimately I don’t think last night’s loss to Arizona is something that should knock them off. They should ride those 2 top-20 wins away from home right on in to the field of 68. No ACC team has those wins on their resumé, neither does Nevada, and Rutgers has the wins but they also have those 4 Q3 losses out there. Arizona St shouldn’t feel comfortable but they should feel like they gave themselves a great shot. (Mar. 10)

Oregon:  19-14 (12-8) — Q1: (2-9) Q2: (7-4) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS (27) TW’s (3)

oregonThe loss last night to UCLA was the final nail in the coffin for Oregon most likely, as 2-9 in Q1 just isn’t going to get it done. They had ample opportunities if just one or 2 of those 9 losses were W’s we would be singing a different tune with the Ducks. Ultimately, they’re an average team that repeatedly couldn’t beat good teams, with the lone win over Arizona at home looking like an outlier now. Sure, the committee could shock us, but at this point there’s too many teams ahead of Oregon in my mind for me to really even think one more second about them after I finish writing this. I’m sure Dana Altman will be back, but for now, enjoy the NIT.(Mar. 10) 


–SEC–

Locks:

bama   vols  mizzou kentucky  a&m  arkansas

On the Right Track:

Teetering:

Mississippi St: 21-12 (8-10) — Q1: (4-8) Q2: (4-3) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (8-0) SOS (43) TW’s (4)

missstState didn’t do themselves any favors by getting waxed by Alabama on Friday and now will have to sweat out Selection Sunday. Ultimately I think they will end up an 11 seed, potentially avoiding Dayton but very well could be in Dayton as well. I don’t see them missing out on the dance though, as those 4 Q1 wins and relatively clean record against bad teams should keep them in. Some of my fellow prognosticators have them behind teams like N.C. State and Pitt, but to me the team who has beaten great teams, and more of them, should be seeded higher. The Bulldogs have wins over Marquette, Arkansas, Texas A&M and TCU, all tourney teams and all top-30 wins. N.C. State and Pitt have 1 such win a piece. That’s without mentioning others like Nevada and Rutgers who have a significantly worse record against bad teams to go with fewer big wins. Long story short, Mississippi State is dancing, just is a matter of when and where. (Mar. 10)

Auburn: 20-12 (10-8) — Q1: (3-10) Q2: (6-1) Q3: (8-1) Q4: (3-0) SOS (17) TW’s (4)

auburnAuburn played well but a 10th loss in Q1 keeps them on the bubble at least, as they have no more chances to add to a not so great 3-10 Q1 record. I don’t think they will miss out on the field, but they really only have 2 top-25 wins (Tennessee/Arkansas) so there truly isn’t a ton of meat on the bone. The lucky thing for them is they are up against a crop of bubble teams who are in much worse situations, so those 3 Q1 wins actually should be enough, especially with a 17th SOS and only 1 loss in Q3/4. Ultimately, this year 9-11 in Q1/2 is going to be good enough to be in the dance, they’ll just be hoping to avoid Dayton. (Mar. 9)

Vanderbilt: 20-14 (11-7) — Q1: (5-10) Q2: (5-1) Q3: (5-2) Q4: (5-1) SOS (24) TW’s (6)

vandyVandy lost pretty easily on Saturday to Texas A&M, but they appear to be a better team than fellow bubble teams like NC State, Nevada or Rutgers. You don’t luck into 5 top-30 wins. What they will try and hang their hat on are those quality wins, but it is also true that they have lost 3 games in Q3/4, so while they may look like a tourney team right now in March, those games when they haven’t are likely going to be what keeps them out of the field. Similar to Vandy, we saw the committee a season ago leave Texas A&M out who went on a late run, including all the way to the SEC championship game, so I would expect a similar result with Vandy this season, just too little too late for the Commodores. (Mar. 11)


–Mountain West–

Locks:

sdsu boise  utahst

Teetering:

Nevada: 21-10 (12-6) — Q1: (4-5) Q2: (4-3) Q3: (10-2) Q4: (3-0) SOS (70) TW’s (2)

nevada

Nevada has imploded down the stretch as they lost back-to-back Q3 games to end the regular season and followed it up with a first round Q2 loss in the MW tourney. They have gone from safely in to squarely in the Dayton group or First 4 out group, depending on where you look. They have 4 Q1 wins, and are 8-8 in Q1/2, so it’s pretty on par with these ACC teams that are right there on the bubble with them. I wouldn’t be shocked for the ACC brand to be the factor that leaves Nevada out, but I wouldn’t be outraged by it just because of how they ended the season in such a disastrous way. They had plenty of chances to play their way in, and they failed to do it. I could not be more on the fence with Nevada, and frankly I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re in Dayton or the NIT. (Mar. 9)


–American–

Locks:

houston   memphis

–WCC–

Locks:

zags  smc

 

Bubble Watch – Week 4

We’re now down to the final full week of the regular season in college basketball and things are starting to take shape as more and more teams play their way out of the bubble conversation. Teams like New Mexico, Virginia Tech and Seton Hall have moved to the ‘needing a miracle’ category as losses pile up and others pick up big wins. I have 31 locks on the board across 9 Conferences, so the best case scenario for these bubble teams is 22 at-larges taken with 14 spots remaining. I have 24 teams on the true bubble watch list. 55 total teams, 36 at-large spots plus 9 auto bids up for grabs will leave 10 of the remaining 24 teams not hearing their name called. That is, if everything goes according to plan. And in March, in college basketball, we know things never go according to plan. So, 24 teams battling it out for 14 spots, that’s March baby. Now we take a look at how each one of them can get their way into the dance with 14 days left to play. It’s going to be a fun ride. Enjoy. (*All data as of 2/27*)


–ACC–

Locks:

Virginia    MIAMI   duke

On the Right Track:

Pitt: 21-8 (14-4) — Q1: (4-3) Q2: (3-4) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (10-1) SOS: (94) TW’s (4)

pittI am still shocked to be writing about a 14-4 team in the ACC as a bubble team but in this weird year we are still here with the Pitt Panthers. While Pitt went 2-0 this past week, I’m still looking at the overall resume and envisioning 2 losses to close out the season followed by a quick exit in the ACC tourney that would leave Pitt 21-11, below .500 in Q1/2 games and and very weak SOS. They are hanging their hat on a win @ Northwestern and then at home against Virginia which is looking less and less impressive. The weakness of the ACC cannot be understated as far as the NET is concerned. I get it, last year was the same story and the ACC teams dominated the tourney. It’s a fair point that ultimately does nothing to help Pitt if they go 0-3 down the stretch. Just win @ Notre Dame this Wednesday and this one can be locked up, as a loss @ Miami is not going to hurt them too much. It’s just time to take care of business, not to feel comfortable. 

N.C. State: 22-8 (12-7) — Q1: (2-5) Q2: (5-3) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (10-0) SOS: (86) TW’s (2)

ncstateThese ACC teams are just slowly sliding down the seed list as teams in other Conferences continue to pick up huge wins and they just try and survive. The Wolfpack were able to defend home court early in the week over Wake but then Clemson came into Raleigh and absolutely beat the living daylight out of em to keep them in dangerous territory. A weak SOS and being 7-8 in Q1-2 games is not exactly where you want to be sitting with March around the corner. With only 1 game remaining @ Duke, N.C. State is starting to feel the pressure behind them as they slip closer to those games in Dayton. I still don’t think they’re in trouble but 0-2 the rest of the way would leave them with a pretty weak resumé all things considered. A win in the ACC tourney may be what it takes to lock this one up. Stay tuned. 

Teetering:

Clemson: 21-8 (13-5) — Q1: (4-2) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (6-2) Q4: (8-2) SOS: (114) TW’s (3)

clemsonLast week we laid it all out for Clemson, who put their at-large hopes on life support with a loss to Louisville. However, they bounced back this week and picked up a massing Q1 win at N.C. State. We said to even have a fighting chance they needed to win at least 1 of their road games to finish and they got it done in the 1st opportunity. Now, they head into this week right on the outside looking in with another massive opportunity upcoming @ Virginia on Tuesday. Win that and they likely find themselves back on the right side of the bubble, lose and it gets real hairy. They finish the season at home with ND, nothing much to gain there. Anything short of 2-0 is going to put a lot of pressure on this group to win some games in the ACC tourney, but the path is still there without winning the whole thing to squeak in there. Just have to win games. 

North Carolina: 18-11 (10-8) — Q1: (1-8) Q2: (6-3) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (29) TW’s (2)

uncThe Tar Heels are clinging on to a small sliver of hope as they try and rack up wins down the stretch. Beating Virginia this week was imperative, and gave them their first Q1 victory of the season. Now they end the season with 2 more must win games, at Florida St and then at home against Duke to end the season. Another Q1 win over Duke would put them firmly in the conversations, and with how hot they got last season that positive momentum could lead right into the ACC tourney to help push them over the edge. It’s as do-or-die as it can get, but at least they have the opportunity to improve the resumé. Best case scenario heading into the ACC tourney is being in the Last 4 in group, which certainly isn’t comfortable, but it’s a path nonetheless. 


–Big Ten–

Locks:

purdue-4 iu northwestern    marylandiowa sparty

On the Right Track:

Illinois: 19-10 (10-8) — Q1: (3-9) Q2: (6-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (28) TW’s (6)

illinois-4Everyone seems to feel Illinois is a lock to make the dance, and while they’re probably right something about that nasty 3-9 Q1 record makes me hesitate. They picked up a Q2 win this past week over Northwestern and then laid an egg @ struggling Ohio St giving the Buckeyes their first win since Jan 21. Illinois has been good enough this season to beat Texas and UCLA, but that feels like an eternity ago. While a 19-13 finish would make this resumé extremely flimsy, it might be those 2 wins in the non-conference that keeps them on the right side, but it still could be close. They need to take care of Michigan at home this week to lock things up in my mind, and the Wolverines are playing good basketball winning 6 of 8 so it’s no slam dunk. I’m still watching the Illini. 

Rutgers: 18-11 (10-8) — Q1: (6-6) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (2-3) Q4: (7-0) SOS: (39) TW’s (5)

rutgersRutgers is truly just limping to the finish line to close out the season as they’ve gone 2-4 over their last 6 games. Sunday became an extremely important game for their tournament chances after they lost early in the week to Michigan at home. The Scarlet Knights got up off the mat though and got a huge win @ Penn St to ease the pressure and now with 6 Q1 wins and an easy trip to Minnesota up next Rutgers should be feeling pretty good about their chances. Yet and still, finishing out the season with a loss to Minnesota and then at home to Northwestern would put them in dangerous territory yet again. They can’t feel comfortable until they walk out of the barn in Minnesota with a W. Sometimes it’s not what you gain it’s what you avoid losing. Time to just take care of business and make this easy on the committee. 

Teetering:

Wisconsin: 16-12 (8-10) — Q1: (6-6) Q2: (4-5) Q3: (1-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (13) TW’s (5)

wisconsinThe Badgers almost had a dream 2-0 week after beating Iowa at home with ease but they fell tragically in OT @ Michigan. Wisconsin was up 3 with 2 seconds left in regulation and Hunter Dickinson hit a wild 3 to force OT and they couldn’t recover. Now the Badgers have a home game with Purdue on Thursday that could serve as the win to put them firmly on the right side of the bubble. Of course, they can’t lose to Minnesota later in the week, but if they can go 2-0 this week, knocking off Purdue in the process, I really think that would punch their ticket. That would be their 7th Q1 win which would put them up with some of the top seeds. Lose to Purdue and they might need to win a some games in the Big Ten tourney to stave off the other bubble teams. Huge week in Madison. 

Michigan: 17-12 (11-7) — Q1: (3-10) Q2: (6-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (4-1) SOS: (26) TW’s (7)

michigan

Michigan had exactly the week that they needed to bolster their resumé as they went on the road to beat Rutgers and then beat fellow bubble team Wisconsin at home. However ugly it was it was 2-0 nonetheless and they’re now firmly in the Last 4 in/First 4 out conversations. They have skyrocketed up the bubble list over the last week and a half with 3 wins over projected tournament teams in Michigan St, Rutgers and Wisconsin. They now finish the season on the road @ Illinois and white hot Indiana. It may be expecting way too much to even want 1 of those to be wins, but if they can pull 1 of them off I think they’d undoubtedly be in the dance at that point. Going 0-2 isn’t the end of the road though, I just think they’ll need a win or 2 in the Big Ten tourney to squeak their way in. 

Penn St: 17-12 (8-10) — Q1: (3-7) Q2: (4-5) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (41) TW’s (3)

PennstIn what was one of the biggest 2nd half collapses of the season, Penn St saw their hopes for an at-large bid take a major blow on Sunday blowing a 19 point 2nd half lead. They scored 5 points in the final 10 minutes, allowing Rutgers to come all the way back and steal the W. Had to be heartbreak in that locker room, with so much on the line and that big of a lead. However, I don’t think that was the final nail in the coffin, as they have two more Q1 opportunities left on the docket. They are of course still on the outside looking in, but a clean sweep the rest of the way would put them in the field in my mind. That of course is asking a lot, but they have to at least pick up the win over Maryland at home now to close out the season to have a chance. An 0-2 week would absolutely end their at-large chances. It is nut up or shut up time in Happy Valley. 


–Big 12–

Locks:

kansastexas    baylor    kstate   iowast tcu

Teetering:

W. Virginia: 16-13 (5-11) — Q1: (4-12) Q2: (5-1) Q3: (1-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (5) TW’s (4)

wvuWest Virginia did what it had to do last week, picking up a huge win at home over Oklahoma St and then had a huge opportunity slip away @ Kansas. Not a game they had to win but with a chance to tie/win on the last possession stealing that one would have been huge to make them feel more comfortable. To close out the season they have 2 more chances to really firm this thing up with a trip to Iowa St and then at home against K-State to close things out. Go 1-1 and I think they would be in at that point. However, what the committee does with these Big 12 teams who have so many losses is the biggest storyline, as it’s hard to keep them out just because every game is so difficult. Imagine Oklahoma St or WVU in the Mountain West, do they cruise? Are they looking like Nevada right now who we all think is pretty safely in the tourney? It sucks but it’s the reality, and if the Mountaineers want to feel safe I really think they need to go 1-1 this week. Make it an easier decision for the committee.  

Oklahoma St: 16-13 (7-9) — Q1: (5-10) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (7) TW’s (4)

okstateWell the Pokes are sliding and sliding fast as by my estimation these 4 losses in a row have knocked them to the wrong side of the bubble. The loss at home vs K-State was devastating, as they led by 8 with 10 minutes left. Huge opportunity blown and now they stare down 2 more Q1 games this week as Baylor comes to Stillwater and then they head to Texas Tech. Somehow, someway they need to win at least 1 of these games to keep themselves in the conversation. I’m not saying the matchup with Texas Tech would for sure act as a play-in game, but for both teams that will be an abosolutely massive game as they both are on the outside looking in. I don’t see all 3 of these remaining Big 12 teams getting in, now maybe they do by knocking off some of the top dogs, but I just don’t know that I buy it. A loss to Baylor and the finale will be must-win for Ok-State, I know that much at least. 

Texas Tech: 16-13 (5-11) — Q1: (5-11) Q2: (0-2) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS: (18) TW’s (4)

Ttech

Tech picked up another Q1 win @ Oklahoma last week but dropped the ball when TCU came to town on Saturday. A win in that one and they would be on the right side of the bubble right now but instead they head into another gauntlet of a week needing another big win. They first head to Kansas who is playing as well as anyone in the Country, so that’s likely a loss. That will set up the gigantic home game with Oklahoma St to serve as damn near a play-in game for the big dance. Obviously, going 2-0 this week would put them in, but 1-1 keeps them right there in the bubble conversations and gives them a chance to squeak in with a win or 2 in the Big 12 tournament. 5-13 in Q1/2 is by far the worst record of the 3 big 12 teams fighting for these spots, so more than anyone else every loss is extremely devastating at this point. That TCU loss might end up being their undoing. 


–Big East–

Locks:

marquettexavier uconn   creighton providence

On the Right Track: N/A

Teetering: N/A


–Pac-12–

Locks:

arizona ucla

On the Right Track:

USC: 21-8 (13-5) — Q1: (4-5) Q2: (6-1) Q3: (6-1) Q4: (5-1) SOS (64) TW’s (2)

uscThe Trojans just had as big of a week as anybody in the Country as they picked up 2 huge road wins over Colorado and Utah. They improved from 8-6 to 10-6 in Q1/2 games and now are firmly on the right side of the bubble ranging anywhere from a 9-11 seed. They also now get Arizona and Arizona St at home this week giving them 2 more big time opportunities to wrap this thing up. I see a 1-1 week as a punching of the ticket for USC, especially if it’s beating Arizona. 

Teetering

Oregon:  16-13 (9-8) — Q1: (4-8) Q2: (5-3) Q3: (3-2) Q4: (4-0) SOS (21) TW’s (3)

oregon

As much as I wanted to leave Oregon off of this entirely they do have 9 Q1/2 wins on the resumé, which is keeping them alive despite the myriad of bad losses. They have to go 2-0 this week, which will do nothing to help their cause but it will keep their bubble from bursting entirely. I still think a big win or 2 in the Pac-12 tourney is necessary but there is still a path for them to make it without winning the Conference tourney. 18-13 in this year’s Pac-12 just doesn’t sound like it’s enough to make it, and the more I write this the more I convince myself they don’t have a shot, but I guess what i’m saying is, there’s a chance. 

Arizona St: 20-9 (11-7) — Q1: (4-3) Q2: (5-5) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (7-1) SOS (77) TW’s (2)

azstateAs quickly as things turned dark for Arizona St losing at home to Colorado it turned much brighter with their last second win over Arizona. As massive of a Q1 win as it gets, they are now above .500 in Q1/2 games with 2 signature wins, 1 over Arizona and 1 on a neutral court vs Creighton. They are squarely in the Last 4 in/First 4 out discussions at this point with 2 very difficult games left @ UCLA/USC. Picking off 1 of them would almost lock the Sun Devils in for me, with 5 Q1 wins and being above .500 in that category the other bubble teams can’t compete with that. Losing both down the stretch however would likely force them to need some help in the Pac-12 tourney. That Colorado loss is looming so large right now, but they can make it meaningless if they can steal another road victory this week. Don’t be shocked if they roll into USC on Saturday and pull one out, especially if the Trojans knock off Arizona 2 days before. 


–SEC–

Locks:

bama   vols  mizzou kentucky  a&m

On the Right Track:

Teetering:

Auburn: 19-10 (9-7) — Q1: (2-8) Q2: (6-1) Q3: (8-1) Q4: (3-0) SOS (34) TW’s (4)

auburnApparently to my fellow bracket prognosticators losing game after game in blowout fashion is not good enough to drop Auburn off of the 8/9 seed line. For me, only 2 Q1 wins and a below .500 Q1/2 record has Auburn on the brink, as I have them in the First 4 in Dayton. The blowout loss this past week @ Kentucky was the epitome of what we’ve seen from Auburn since they were 16-3. They have gone 3-7 since then, dropping game after game and not really adding anything to the resumé. Now they are reeling, and now head to rival Alabama this week before Tennessee heads to town, 2 more Q1 games and if they fall to 2-10 in that category I’m not sure how the committee can possibly keep them in, especially with these Big 12/Big 10 teams who are going to have 4 or 5 or even 6 Q1 wins. The Tigers could make it easy if they just take care of Alabama at home, but that is far easier said than done.

Arkansas: 19-10 (8-8) — Q1: (3-7) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (10-1) Q4: (2-0) SOS (30) TW’s (4)

arkansasArkansas is holding on right now, winning the games they should and continuing to drop Q1 games. They battled Alabama tough and looked the part of a NCAA tournament team, but ultimately it was another Q1 loss. With a road trip to Tennessee up next, it is looking like this Saturday’s matchup at home with Kentucky is going to be as close to must-win as it gets. Similar to Auburn, many have the Hogs higher than maybe their resumé deserves, but with two more losses dropping to 3-9 in Q1 and 7-11 in Q1/2 they would be right in the mix with all of those Big 12/Big 10 teams who are fighting for the last spots in the tourney. Win 1 of these final two and that might be enough for them to feel truly comfortable. 

Mississippi St: 19-10 (7-9) — Q1: (4-7) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (4-1) Q4: (7-0) SOS (48) TW’s (4)

missstIt was about as expected this week as Mississippi St fell to Kentucky but bounced back to complete the sweep over Ole Miss. They are still just barely on the right side of the bubble and this week presents two big opportunities to improve that. They go to Mizzou and then host Texas A&M in 2 giant Q1 games. After this week it’s a pretty easy end of the season, so picking up 1 of these will be huge come Selection Sunday. Win at home over A&M and I think they have a great shot at getting in the dance in season 1 under Chris Jans. Getting that Q1-2 record up to .500 would be huge in terms of locking this thing up though, so while a 2-0 record seems unlikely it would punch the ticket for the Bulldogs. Huge week for Mississippi St. 


–Mountain West–

Locks:

sdsu

On the Right Track:

Nevada: 19-7 (10-3) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (6-2) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS (50) TW’s (2)

nevada

So Nevada did in fact lose @ Utah St, but the path forward remains the same, finish 4-0 beating up on some bad teams and you’re in the dance. It is just about avoiding disaster as the season winds down for the Wolfpack as it’s all Q3 or 4 the rest of the way. The biggest plus to their resumé right now is they don’t have the bad losses out there weighing them down like some of the other bubble teams do. Just maintain that clean sheet and I think this one is a wrap. Drop 1 or even 2 down the stretch and that’s when things will get dicey, but I don’t see that happening with the way they’ve handled bad teams so far this season. Nevada looks tourney bound, just have to take care of business. 

Boise St: 20-6 (11-3) — Q1: (1-3) Q2: (8-1) Q3: (5-2) Q4: (6-0) SOS (77) TW’s (1)

boiseThe Broncos are in good shape right now, but the rest of the season is a really tough 4 game stretch that of course could sink the ship. It is also chalk full of opportunities to lock things up for them and it kicks off this week with New Mexico coming to Boise followed by a road game with San Jose St. 2 more Q2 wins and I think you can pencil the Broncos into the field of 68 as that 10-1 record would be too good to keep them out. They also still have a home game with San Diego St and a game @ Utah St to pick up some more Q1 wins to boot, so while 0-4 looks really scary just picking up the home wins should be enough to push them over the finish line. The Broncos looked poised to make it back-to-back trips to the dance for the first time in decades (potentially ever?)

Teetering:

New Mexico: 19-7 (7-7) — Q1: (3-2) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (8-3) Q4: (5-1) SOS (94) TW’s (3)

unm Well the collapse is in full swing as last week they dropped a home game against Wyoming to add another blow to this sinking ship. While they were able to bounce back in the road win over San Jose St, this thing is dying a slow painful death. 4-0 down the stretch is the only way they should feel comfortable entering the MW tourney, as they do get 2 more Q1 chances this week as they head to Boise St and then get San Diego St at home. Drop either one of those and now you just won’t have enough meat on the bone to makeup for 4 Q3-4 losses. No team made the tourney last year with 4 such losses, so I think it would take that 5-2 Q1 record to get it done. There is zero, and I mean zero, margin for error for New Mexico right now as they are playing for their lives the rest of the way. 

Utah St: 20-7 (10-5) — Q1: (0-4) Q2: (7-1) Q3: (10-1) Q4: (3-1) SOS (89) TW’s (1) 

utahstUtah St did exactly what they had to do this past week, going 2-0 at home and picking up another Q2 win over Nevada in the process. 0 wins in Q1 is what is holding them back at this point, as you at some point have to prove you can beat a really good team to make the tournament. Wyoming was the last team in the field last year with a 1-6 record in Q1 and was 9-1 in Q2 so Utah St isn’t out of it just yet but they have to have every win the rest of the way. This week they only have 1 and it’s on the road against Wyoming, an absolute can’t lose situation. A 3-0 finish to the season and the Aggies might find themselves on the right side of the bubble, as that would add 2 more Q1-2 wins with the Boise win being Q1. It’s not out of the cards right now for them, they just can’t afford to shoot themselves in the foot this week. As massive as it gets for a Q3 game. 


–American–

Locks:

houston

On the Right Track: N/A

Teetering: 

Memphis: 22-7 (12-4) — Q1: (2-3) Q2: (7-3) Q3: (7-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS (79) TW’s (1)

memphisMemphis continues to do the right things, beating both Wichita St (on the road) and then Cincy (at home). It was just what the doctor ordered as they added to their Q2 wins and continued to stay on track to land somewhere in the 9-10 seed range. They get a shouldn’t lose game @ SMU next week before the biggest game of the season occurs, at home vs Houston. Win that game and Memphis will punch their ticket. I think even with a loss they are still in good position, but that win over Houston would lock them in for sure. It’s a huge week for Memphis, but what they can’t afford is to fall in the look ahead trap and lose to SMU. Then a 2nd loss to Houston would put them in trouble. Big swing potential this week for the Tigers. 

–WCC–

Locks:

zags  smc

–Others–

On the Right Track:

Florida Atlantic: 24-3 (15-2) — Q1: (2-1) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (13-0) SOS (157) TW’s (1)

fau

I think there’s an outside shot the committee would put FAU in if they’re 26-3 entering their Conference tourney and they get upset. That would just require two more road wins to close out the season over lowly Rice and LA Tech. Do that and if the loss is to a good team like UAB or N. Texas I think there’s a legitimate chance that Conference USA is a two-bid league. Their resumé stacked up against say a Texas Tech is damn near an impossible decision, and you could make a rational argument the team who played the brutal schedule should get the bid not the one with the extremely soft schedule. But, they made the quadrants for a reason, and the 5-3 Q1/2 record is a better win % than a lot of the bubble teams have in that category, so maybe just maybe the committee would have it in them. Hopefully we won’t have to find out. 

 

Bubble Watch – Week 3

The 3rd edition of the 2023 bubble watch is here and boy are things getting interesting in the land of the bubble. Truthfully, this last week did more to make the bubble picture clearer than it did to muddy the waters, as teams like Kentucky, Texas A&M, Mississippi St and USC picked up wins that put them on firmer ground than they were a week ago. Conversely, teams on the outside a week ago like Oregon, UNC, New Mexico and Clemson all suffered more blows to their chances that helped to widen the gap between teams on the right side and those on the wrong side. With all of that being said, almost everyone still has 4 games to play, and with that many opportunities still out there this thing is still wide open. If fact, we still have 11 of the 14 Big Ten schools on this Watch and all 10 of the Big 12 schools with a legitimate path to an at-large bid. So, without further ado let’s just dive in to exactly what the path forward looks like for every team still in contention. (All data as of 2/20)


–ACC–

Locks:

Virginia    MIAMI

On the Right Track:

Pitt: 19-8 (12-4) — Q1: (4-2) Q2: (4-4) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (9-1) SOS: (85) TW’s (6)

pittIt’s hard to believe that 12-4 in the ACC would be good enough for a 10 seed but that’s where we are in this year’s weak ACC and with Pitt specifically who has shot itself in the foot time and time again. A 2-0 week would have put them in great position, but the loss @ Va Tech keeps them on the watch, despite the 6 good wins. This week is a must go 2-0 scenario as they have 2 home games with Georgia Tech and Syracuse, both teams below .500. You can’t lose either game, simple as that. A loss puts them in legitimate danger, not that it would bump them out but now they enter those conversations and could be looking at Dayton even if other teams pick up big wins. Recall, this Pitt team lost at home to Florida St in January, so another brutal loss is not out of the cards. The ultimate play to the level of your competition team. Let’s hope for their sake it’s an easy breezy 2-0 week.  

Duke: 19-8 (10-6) — Q1: (2-7) Q2: (6-1) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS: (51) TW’s (5)

dukeWe said last week they had to go 2-0 to keep things on track and they did just that, in dominating fashion I might add. The win @ Syracuse by 22 was impressive and now they get two home games this week with a chance to push it out to 21-8 and really start to feel comfortable. Of course, with desperate Virginia Tech coming to Cameron Indoor, nothing is guaranteed, and that game could prove pivotal for both teams. Ultimately, with 3/4 at home down the stretch, Duke should cruise to at worst a 3-1 run to finish things out and that would absolutely be enough to get in. Considering they haven’t lost at home all season, it’s probably silly to even keep them out of the lock group at this point, but then you look at that 2-7 Q1 record and remember they absolutely cannot afford bad losses. 1-3 down the stretch is very unlikely, but it would put them in serious jeopardy. 2-0 this week though and we can lock this one up. Just time to take care of business.  

N.C. State: 21-7 (11-6) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (5-3) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (10-0) SOS: (82) TW’s (3)

ncstateN.C. State was able to avoid disaster after losing early in the week to Syracuse by beating rival UNC at home to keep things moving in the right direction. The lack of Q1 wins is really the only thing holding N.C. State back from being a lock at this point, as I think they’re talented enough to be dancing they just need to take care of business. This week it’s 2 home games with Wake Forest and Clemson, who will both be desperate for huge wins. Go 2-0 in those games and I think you lock up the Wolfpack, with no real pressure on the ACC tourney. A loss though, with the final game @ Duke, then an early exit in the ACC tourney could knock the Wolfpack all the way down to the cut line. The 2-4 record in Q1 would likely sit at 2-5 with Q2 at 5-5, that might not be enough to push them through. So, while these next couple aren’t going to wow anyone, you just can’t afford to drop them. 

Teetering:

Clemson: 19-8 (11-5) — Q1: (3-3) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (4-1) Q4: (8-3) SOS: (123) TW’s (3)

clemsonWellllll if you read last week’s Clemson breakdown you know major alarms are going off as we described a loss this past week like a bomb going off in the hull of the ship. Well, the explosion has happened and now the crew is scrambling, as this thing is going down and going down fast. The Tigers now have a better win % in Q2 than Q4, not exactly a strong selling point to the committee. Losing to Louisville, possibly the worst team in the history of the ACC, is something you almost can’t come back from. They do have 2 Q1 games left on the schedule though, so in theory a 4-0 stretch run puts them back into the conversation. It would be hard to ignore 9-4 in Q1/2 games. But that means winning at Virginia and N.C. State. Extremely unlikely, but 1 of those gives them a fighting chance at 22-9. It is absolutely nut up or shut up time for Clemson, as every game has to be treated as a must win the rest of the way. 

North Carolina: 16-11 (8-8) — Q1: (0-8) Q2: (5-3) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (29) TW’s (2)

uncIf UNC was on the brink last week, they now are lying beneath the rubble. An 0-2 week was both what they could not afford and what they ended up with. They have now lost 5 of 6 and are in complete free-fall…yes this is the team returning 4 of 5 starters from last years Final Four and runner-up group. Maybe Brady Manek was that important? Honestly, if their program name wasn’t North Carolina, having all the history and lore that comes with it, they probably wouldn’t even be on the watch. However, if they are able to go 4-0 the rest of the way, they will at least be in conversations as that would add home wins over Virginia and Duke. So, technically there might still be a path forward, but I’m not sure how you have confidence in this group to pull it together and go 4-0. Hubert Davis has gone from the highest of highs to the lowest of lows. Can a Coach who just went to the Natty be on the hot seat a year later? Wild times in Chapel Hill. 

Virginia Tech: 16-11 (6-10) — Q1: (3-4) Q2: (4-3) Q3: (3-3) Q4: (6-1) SOS: (79) TW’s (4)

vatechMy lack of confidence in this group that I mentioned last week was ultimately good intuition as Va Tech has nearly destroyed its at-large chances with another terrible loss to Georgia Tech. They were able to bounce back and beat Pitt at home though, classic VT, and now they look ahead at 4 games that are all but must-win. They welcome Miami to Blacksburg followed by a trip to Duke this week to try and play themselves into consideration. Anything short of 2-0 keeps them far off the true cut-line as they are still looking up at a strong list of teams ahead of them who are also on the wrong side of the bubble. This could be the last week we see the Hokies on this bubble watch, as the margin between them and the teams I see as the Last 4 in is growing. Time to shrink it or be forgotten…it’s go time in Blacksburg. 

Wake Forest: 17-10 (9-7) — Q1: (1-6) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (4-2) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (74) TW’s (3)

WakeWake did not take advantage of their 2nd to last Q1 opportunity of the regular season losing @ Miami, and now looks ahead at a trip to N.C. State this week as their last chance to add to their 1 Q1 win. Listen, it’s a long-shot right now for Wake to even be on this list, but a 4-0 run to end the season would put them near the cut line as they would improve the 5-8 Q1/2 record to 7-8 and be 21-10 overall. I think that would be good enough to be in that true 12 team bubble (Last 4 in – First 4 out – Next 4 out) conversation. That is best case scenario for the Demon Deacons, and as dark and stormy the path may seem, it is nonetheless a path forward. All hope is not lost at this point, but 1 more loss would likely be the final twisting of the knife, and put all their eggs in the ACC tourney basket. As we say, it’s nut up or shut up time for Wake now. 


–Big Ten–

Locks:

purdue-4 iu northwestern

On the Right Track:

Maryland: 18-9 (9-7) — Q1: (4-7) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (26) TW’s (5)

marylandWell Maryland made light work of one of the more difficult games they’ve had all season beating Purdue with ease only to go out to Nebraska and lay an egg and keep themselves from locking this thing up. They are in great position though, with the last 4 games of the season all very winnable, they’re in the best shape of anyone else in the Conference to breeze into the dance. With a gigantic win over Purdue to list at the top of the resumé, the Terrapins are all but a shoe-in, especially with Minnesota and Northwestern at home this week, a 2-0 stretch should lock this thing up. Now, Northwestern is as hot as it gets, so a win there isn’t guaranteed, but with how well they’ve played at home it is hard to imagine this team not getting it done. Congrats to Kevin Willard on turning this thing around so fast, as Maryland was below .500 a season ago. 

Iowa: 17-10 (9-7) — Q1: (7-7) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (0-1) Q4: (6-1) SOS: (22) TW’s (7)

iowa

The Hawkeyes ran into what might be the hottest team in the Country in Northwestern and got their doors blown off to keep them out of lock territory for now. Ultimately, what I said last week still rings true for Iowa, just win your home games and this thing is going to be just fine. They took care of Ohio St at home last week and get Michigan St there this week after going to Wisconsin. A 2-0 week in those games and that’ll punch the ticket, but 1-1 keeps them right on track to sure this thing up down the stretch as well. They have a ton of good wins, it’s just those bad losses, especially E. Illinois, that have me pausing for now. 17-14 might not be enough, but 1 more win this week would do it for me. It’s all but a done deal for the Hawkeyes, just have to take care of the easy ones to wrap it up. 

Illinois: 17-9 (8-7) — Q1: (3-8) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (28) TW’s (6)

illinois-4That was the dangerous 0-2 week we spoke about last time, as the Illini are now halfway to that dreaded 3-10 Q1 record potential we referenced last week. I’m not saying being 3-10 in Q1 will put them out of the dance, but they may sink low enough to be in those conversations, especially as these bubble teams start to add more to their resumés. What they do have in their back pocket are non-conference wins over Texas and UCLA that are buoying what is otherwise a pretty pedestrian resumé. Three games are on the docket this week as the Minnesota rescheduling puts a lot of pressure on this group. With the first two at home against the Gophers and Northwestern, it feels like a worse-case scenario of 2-1 this week, as another non-Q1 loss would really hurt their chances. The week culminates with a trip to struggling Ohio St, who still offers up a Q1 opportunity, although by the end of the season their free-fall might push it to Q2. I’m not saying 3-0 is necessary, but the more I write the more danger I feel Illinois is in. I’ll stop and just wait and see how it plays out.  

Rutgers: 17-10 (9-7) — Q1: (4-6) Q2: (5-2) Q3: (1-2) Q4: (7-0) SOS: (37) TW’s (5)

rutgersInjuries are starting to send Rutgers into a tailspin, and while they picked up a huge road win @ Wisconsin, the loss earlier in the week at home to Nebraska is as worrying as they come. With Caleb McConnell joining Mawot Mag on the injury report, perhaps going 1-1 was a good week for the Scarlet Knights, but the Q3 loss hurts the resumé big time. I don’t think Rutgers is in major danger so long as they win their home games and beat Minnesota, which would be a 3-1 finish to the season. Even 2-2 could be enough, but that would certainly put them closer than they want to be to the cut line. Ultimately, wins over Purdue and Indiana, among others, are helping to carry a team that is truly limping to the finish line here in February. A home game this week with desperate Michigan gives them a chance to cement themselves into the field of 68. A loss in that one though puts major pressure on the following game @ Penn St. Things could be dicey this time next week. 

Michigan St:  16-10 (8-7) — Q1: (6-8) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (4-0) SOS: (6) TW’s (5)

sparty

It was a tumultuous week to say the least for Michigan St, as the on-campus shooting postponed 1 game and weighed heavy on all minds this weekend in what ultimately was a loss @ Michigan. At this time, the Minnesota game hasn’t been rescheduled, so what awaits the Spartans this week is a home game with IU and then a trip to Iowa. 3 of the last 4 games are very winnable so I don’t imagine Sparty will have too much trouble finding their way into the dance for the 24th consecutive time under Tom Izzo. Even if they split the rest of the way, I think the huge number of Q1 wins is going to be enough to keep them in the dance. Any more losses than that and they definitely would float down to that last 4 byes/first 4 conversation. As hard as it is undoubtedly, Sparty just needs to lock in and take care of things at home, which starts with a massive game with IU Tuesday. 

Teetering:

Wisconsin: 15-11 (7-9) — Q1: (5-7) Q2: (4-3) Q3: (1-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (12) TW’s (4)

wisconsinWisconsin had the opportunity to really make things much more comfortable this past week with 2 home games against Rutgers and Michigan, but only going 1-1 in those games keeps them right on the cut line. I have them playing in Dayton as things stand today, but every game is going to be crucial down the stretch. It starts with Iowa at home this week in what I would call a must-win for sure, because later in the week they head to Michigan in a very difficult matchup. An 0-2 week may be too much to overcome, so getting it done at home is imperative. The truth of the matter is the Badgers are 4-9 in their last 13 and are relying on big time wins in November and December to carry them into the dance. Go 1-1 this week and a home game with Purdue awaits to lock things up. As easy as it sounds, I just have ran out of confidence Wisconsin can find their December form so I expect this thing to come down to the wire. 

Michigan: 15-12 (9-7) — Q1: (3-9) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (6-1) SOS: (35) TW’s (4)

michigan

For the Wolverines last week wasn’t a disaster, but it was another opportunity gone awry with a loss @ Wisconsin preceding the big win over Michigan St at home. With 3 of the final 4 on the road, the recipe for the Wolverines to play their way in remains the same, gotta steal at least 1 on the road. This week is probably the best shot they have, with a hobbling Rutgers on the docket it’s not technically a must-win but I just don’t see them winning the final 2 @ Illinois/Indiana. Beat Rutgers on the road and then Wisconsin at home and I think they will find themselves on the right side of the bubble for the first time all season. Anything short of 2-2 for the Wolverines the rest of the way will put all the pressure on the Big Ten tournament, which of course will present plenty of chances at big wins. However, as we saw with Texas A&M last year, it’s not always as important as we think.  

Penn St: 16-11 (7-9) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (3-5) Q3: (4-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (41) TW’s (3)

PennstLast week we said Penn St needed to go 4-2 down the stretch, and with back-to-back wins this past week that number now shifts to 2-2. With 2 home games against Rutgers and Maryland it looks very do-able, and even that road game with Ohio St offers a legitimate chance for the Nittany Lions to go 3-1 down the stretch and really put themselves firmly on the right side of the bubble. After losing 4 in a row a few weeks ago, they now have a chance to put together a 4 game win streak with 2 more wins this week. Jalen Pickett has been one of the best players in the Country of late, and really all season, so with an elite guard running the show I have a little more confidence in Penn St than some of these other Big Ten teams fighting for those last few spots. The schedule is also favorable, so this program may finally breakthrough and get to a NCAA tournament for the first time since 2011. 


–Big 12–

Locks:

kansastexas    baylor    kstate   iowast

On the Right Track:

TCU: 18-9 (7-7) — Q1: (4-8) Q2: (6-0) Q3: (1-0) Q4: (7-1) SOS: (15) TW’s (6)

tcuThe full TCU team was finally back on Saturday and they showed out in a major way with a 25-point win over Oklahoma St to stop a 4 game losing streak. A healthy TCU team is as good as any in the Country, and they are as close to lock status as any on this watch. However, with the last 4 games all Q1, I take a look at what a 4-12 Q1 record would look like and pump the brakes on the whole lock discussion. TCU needs to pick up at least 1 win in these final 4 to still feel comfortable. It sounds crazy, but I genuinely am not sure where a 4-12 Q1 record would land them, especially with that Q4 loss out there as well. It’s a really tough schedule the rest of the way too, with Kansas and Texas at home and road games with Texas Tech and Oklahoma who are scratching and clawing trying to stay on the bubble. All of this would be put to bed Monday night if they can knock Kansas off at home though, so I’ll wait to sound the alarms until after that. 

Teetering:

W. Virginia: 15-12 (4-10) — Q1: (5-11) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (4) TW’s (4)

wvuWell it was a disastrous week for the Mountaineer’s hopes for the tournament as they went 0-2, including a home game against last place Texas Tech. Now, the 2 remaining home games are must-win, as I don’t think 1-3 down the stretch is going to be good enough on its own. That would be 16-15 overall, which I don’t think would be quite enough, depending on what the other bubble teams do of course. It starts quickly on Monday night with Oklahoma St coming to Morgantown in a massive bubble clash. They have now put themselves in a do-or-die scenario and have to get it done. I’m not really sure if they’re good enough to get it done, but with 2 road games with Kansas and Iowa St also left, there’s no margin for error anymore. 

Oklahoma St: 16-11 (7-7) — Q1: (4-8) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (9) TW’s (4)

okstateAs quickly as the Pokes ascended they are now just as quickly in danger of sliding right on out of the picture all together. I suppose that’s just life in the Big 12 right now, as they went 0-2 last week and have a tough road game with West Virginia up next before they welcome Kansas St into Stillwater. It is not inconceivable to think they could drop 2 more this week, and while you’d like to think they can get a home win over K-State, the Wildcats can’t ever be considered an easy win. The path forward is pretty simple for Oklahoma St, just win your home games. They have K-State and Baylor the rest of the way at home, that would be plenty to send them dancing. However, 1-3 the rest of the way could also be enough, it just might send them to Dayton or even to the NIT. I’m not sure that there’s room for all of these Big 12 teams to get in, so these matchups down the stretch are pivotal. 

Texas Tech: 15-12 (4-10) — Q1: (4-9) Q2: (0-3) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (17) TW’s (4)

Ttech

The Red Raiders have now ripped off 3 consecutive Q1 wins in the Big 12 to force there way on to the Bubble Watch for the first time. The resumé still needs a lot of work, but good news for them is they play in the Big 12 where damn near every game is a Q1 opportunity. They are now 5-2 in their last 7 games and are starting to click, but it’s still do-or-die time as we head down the stretch. They get Oklahoma on the road and then get TCU at home to try and keep this wild ride going. Go 2-0 this week and they may find themselves right on the cut line, only being held back by that disgusting 0-3 Q2 record. Now, those 3 losses aren’t horrible, being Oklahoma and W. Virginia at home and then Ohio St on a neutral site before they collapsed. It still looks really ugly especially when comparing to these other bubble teams. Yet and still, this all comes down to what they do in the 4 remaining games. Go 3-1 and they may just have a shot at this thing. 


–Big East–

Locks:

marquettexavier uconn   creighton providence

On the Right Track: N/A

Teetering:

Seton Hall: 15-12 (9-8) — Q1: (3-7) Q2: (2-4) Q3: (4-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (21) TW’s (3)

setonhallWell times are as desperate as they can get in the life of a bubble team, but the outside shot still exists with 3 winnable games left the Pirates could sit 18-12 and have a legitimate shot if they can get it done. It starts this week with a home game against Xavier that is do-or-die. Last week’s loss @ UConn put them in this scenario, but with a home win over Xavier followed by a home win over Villanova all of a sudden they would have life again. That would set them up with a game @ Providence to close out the season that would give them a legitimate chance at an at-large berth. Anything short of that though and it will come down to the Big East tournament for this group. It’s as bleak of a path as I’ve laid out in this watch, but it is a path nonetheless. 


–Pac-12–

Locks:

arizona ucla

On the Right Track: N/A

Teetering: 

USC: 19-8 (11-5) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (5-1) Q3: (6-1) Q4: (5-1) SOS (64) TW’s (2)

uscUSC was able to right the ship this past week and take care of business in 2 must-win games. They are now on the right side of the bubble, somewhat comfortably at this moment, but it’s certainly no time for relaxing. Road games this week with Utah and Colorado are the exact set of games that could blow this whole thing up if they lose both. They have to find a way to split these 2 games, which would set them up to beat Arizona and Arizona St at home to shore this thing up. Long story short, if they can go 3-1 down the stretch it’s a wrap in my opinion. Anything short of that and they’ll be right in the mix of teams on the cut line come Selection Sunday, barring a Pac-12 tourney Championship of course. With the Pac-12 scheduling, that of course means 2 road games in 3 days, no easy task, but this time next week a 20-9 record will have them sitting pretty with a 4th Q1 win. Handle your business and make the committee’s job easy breezy. 

Oregon:  15-13 (9-8) — Q1: (3-8) Q2: (6-4) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (4-0) SOS (13) TW’s (3)

oregon

3 straight losses now with no more Q1-2 opportunities until the Pac-12 tourney the Ducks are now all but lifeless. They need to win their remaining games and then hope that other bubble teams stink it up. I think a couple of wins in the Pac-12 tourney could get them back in consideration with a 9-12 Q1-2 record, but right now it doesn’t look very good for them. Just when you thought they had a shot to turn things around and make a push with Washington and Washington St on the road, you hoped they could at least pick one of those off. Not so fast, and now they need some help. Another loss in the regular season knocks them out of it, so it’s do-or-die time for Oregon, but they could even be dead already.

Arizona St: 19-9 (10-7) — Q1: (3-3) Q2: (5-5) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (7-1) SOS (90) TW’s (1)

azstateThe path as of a week ago was to go 3-2 down the stretch, with 2-0 last week at home being huge for that to be a reality. Well, a loss at home to Colorado was the exact thing to send the Sun Devils to the NIT. Now they really need to pick up 2 out of 3, which are all on the road and against UCLA/Arizona/USC. A murderers row really, a stretch that could send them packing quickly as 0-3 probably more realistic than 2-1 if we’re being honest. It’s a dark and stormy path, similar to that of Seton Hall, maybe tougher. However, it is a path nevertheless and at this point in the season you hope to at least have a chance to play your way into the field prior to Conference tourney’s. It was a blown opportunity last week, but it’s not completely dead just yet. 

Utah: 17-11 (10-7) — Q1: (2-7) Q2: (3-3) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (10-0) SOS (71) TW’s (1)

utahSimilar to Arizona St, Utah saw opportunities go by the wayside last week with 2 losses in the state of Arizona. There is now no margin for error for the Utes, as going 3-0 down the stretch is likely what it would take to see them through. They get UCLA and USC at home this week, which presents 2 massive opportunities to take that 5-10 Q1/2 record to 7-10, which gives them a much better chance. Plus, a win over UCLA is the type of win you can hang your hat on come Selection Sunday, so it’s one of those opportunities that not many of the other bubble teams have on the docket. They also don’t have much in the bad loss column, so picking up these wins would absolutely give them a fighting chance. They end the season @ Colorado, so 3-0 would put them at 4-7 in Q1 and 4-3 in Q2 if all else remains the same. Damnit that just might be enough. 


–SEC–

Locks:

bama   vols  mizzou

On the Right Track:

Kentucky: 18-9 (9-5) — Q1: (4-7) Q2: (5-1) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (6-1) SOS (24) TW’s (4)

kentuckyTwo gigantic wins have now put Kentucky back in a more comfortable place on the right side of the bubble, as they picked up two Q1 wins and got above .500 in Q1-2 games. As about as inconsistent as it comes, when this Kentucky team is at its best they can beat anybody, as they showed beating Tennessee this weekend for the season sweep. Now they head to a reeling Florida team without Collin Castleton and then welcome Auburn to Rupp Arena. Another 2-0 week would lock this thing up for the Wildcats and make them one of the scariest 7 or 8 seed in the field. I would not want them in my region if I was a top seed come March as they are as talented as any team in the Country. They just have to play with consistency defensively and this thing could look a lot like it did back in 2014 when Calapari took 8 seeded Kentucky to the Natty. 

Texas A&M: 20-7 (12-2) — Q1: (5-4) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (8-2) SOS (78) TW’s (2)

a&mThe Aggies are unquestionably the hottest team in the Country right now going 14-2 in since dropping to Wofford just before Christmas. Last week they picked up a home win over Arkansas and then went to Mizzou and handed the Tigers their 3rd loss at home this year, joining Kansas and Alabama as the teams to do so. Buzz Williams is turning in one of the all-time coaching jobs getting this team turned around after they looked destined for another disappointing season. A home game against Tennessee on Tuesday gives them an opportunity to lock this thing up and continue to put pressure on Alabama for the regular season SEC championship. They host Bama the final game of the season, so we could be in a world where that game is for the SEC crown. Hopefully, the Aggies aren’t getting as ahead of themselves as I am, but this season has incredibly gone from 6-5 following a loss to Wofford to a potential SEC Championship. What a turnaround. 

Teetering:

Auburn: 18-9 (8-6) — Q1: (2-7) Q2: (6-2) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS (43) TW’s (4)

auburnAuburn’s resumé is taking blow after blow right now as this group has now lost 6 out of 8 and are in desperate need of a big win to right the ship. A home win over Mizzou looked like what they needed to get this train back on the tracks but they followed it up with a loss @ Vandy and look as shaky as ever. They get a home game against Ole Miss in what is a can’t lose game because the 3 after that could all be losses. They finish the season @ Kentucky/Alabama and then Tennessee comes to town. I would honestly predict that to be an 0-3 stretch with the way they’re playing. However, it’s college basketball and if they’re desperate they could pull off a win over Tennessee to close things out, and they may need it. Going to be an interesting close to the season for the Tigers who at one time were 16-3 and cruising. 

Arkansas: 18-9 (7-7) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (8-1) Q4: (3-0) SOS (40) TW’s (4)

arkansasThe Hogs continue to just hold on as they dropped another road game against white hot Texas A&M but bounced back to beat Florida at home. The 7-8 Q1-2 record is good enough for now to keep them in the field, but with 3 more potential losses coming they could be in real jeopardy if they don’t pick up a big win down the stretch. They first get Georgia at home in a can’t lose game but that is followed up with trips to Alabama and Tennessee. Drop those 2 and all of a sudden the last game of the season at home with Kentucky becomes extremely important. A 1-3 finish, which is not inconceivable, would put them squarely on the cut line entering the SEC Championship. Just win your home games and you should be in, but that Kentucky game will not be easy with the way they’ve played of late. It’s go time for the Muss Bus. 

Mississippi St: 18-9 (6-8) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (4-4) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS (48) TW’s (4)

missstIt was about as expected this week as Mississippi St fell to Kentucky but bounced back to complete the sweep over Ole Miss. They are still just barely on the right side of the bubble and this week presents two big opportunities to improve that. They go to Mizzou and then host Texas A&M in 2 giant Q1 games. After this week it’s a pretty easy end of the season, so picking up 1 of these will be huge come Selection Sunday. Win at home over A&M and I think they have a great shot at getting in the dance in season 1 under Chris Jans. Getting that Q1-2 record up to .500 would be huge in terms of locking this thing up though, so while a 2-0 record seems unlikely it would punch the ticket for the Bulldogs. Huge week for Mississippi St. 


–Mountain West–

Locks:

sdsu

On the Right Track:

Nevada: 19-7 (10-3) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (6-2) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS (50) TW’s (2)

nevada

So Nevada did in fact lose @ Utah St, but the path forward remains the same, finish 4-0 beating up on some bad teams and you’re in the dance. It is just about avoiding disaster as the season winds down for the Wolfpack as it’s all Q3 or 4 the rest of the way. The biggest plus to their resumé right now is they don’t have the bad losses out there weighing them down like some of the other bubble teams do. Just maintain that clean sheet and I think this one is a wrap. Drop 1 or even 2 down the stretch and that’s when things will get dicey, but I don’t see that happening with the way they’ve handled bad teams so far this season. Nevada looks tourney bound, just have to take care of business. 

Boise St: 20-6 (11-3) — Q1: (1-3) Q2: (8-1) Q3: (5-2) Q4: (6-0) SOS (77) TW’s (1)

boiseThe Broncos are in good shape right now, but the rest of the season is a really tough 4 game stretch that of course could sink the ship. It is also chalk full of opportunities to lock things up for them and it kicks off this week with New Mexico coming to Boise followed by a road game with San Jose St. 2 more Q2 wins and I think you can pencil the Broncos into the field of 68 as that 10-1 record would be too good to keep them out. They also still have a home game with San Diego St and a game @ Utah St to pick up some more Q1 wins to boot, so while 0-4 looks really scary just picking up the home wins should be enough to push them over the finish line. The Broncos looked poised to make it back-to-back trips to the dance for the first time in decades (potentially ever?)

Teetering:

New Mexico: 19-7 (7-7) — Q1: (3-2) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (8-3) Q4: (5-1) SOS (94) TW’s (3)

unm Well the collapse is in full swing as last week they dropped a home game against Wyoming to add another blow to this sinking ship. While they were able to bounce back in the road win over San Jose St, this thing is dying a slow painful death. 4-0 down the stretch is the only way they should feel comfortable entering the MW tourney, as they do get 2 more Q1 chances this week as they head to Boise St and then get San Diego St at home. Drop either one of those and now you just won’t have enough meat on the bone to makeup for 4 Q3-4 losses. No team made the tourney last year with 4 such losses, so I think it would take that 5-2 Q1 record to get it done. There is zero, and I mean zero, margin for error for New Mexico right now as they are playing for their lives the rest of the way. 

Utah St: 20-7 (10-5) — Q1: (0-4) Q2: (7-1) Q3: (10-1) Q4: (3-1) SOS (89) TW’s (1) 

utahstUtah St did exactly what they had to do this past week, going 2-0 at home and picking up another Q2 win over Nevada in the process. 0 wins in Q1 is what is holding them back at this point, as you at some point have to prove you can beat a really good team to make the tournament. Wyoming was the last team in the field last year with a 1-6 record in Q1 and was 9-1 in Q2 so Utah St isn’t out of it just yet but they have to have every win the rest of the way. This week they only have 1 and it’s on the road against Wyoming, an absolute can’t lose situation. A 3-0 finish to the season and the Aggies might find themselves on the right side of the bubble, as that would add 2 more Q1-2 wins with the Boise win being Q1. It’s not out of the cards right now for them, they just can’t afford to shoot themselves in the foot this week. As massive as it gets for a Q3 game. 


–American–

Locks:

houston

On the Right Track: N/A

Teetering: 

Memphis: 20-7 (10-4) — Q1: (2-3) Q2: (5-3) Q3: (7-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS (68) TW’s (1)

memphisThe Tigers were able to do what they needed to in order to stay on the right side of the bubble, picking up a home W over UCF before falling @ Houston, no shame there. Now they look at a closing stretch that offers 3 more Q1-2 opportunities to lock this resumé up. This week is @ Wichita St and back home against Cincy, 2 games that aren’t must-win but would certainly would take the pressure off if they could nab them both. They still have the home tilt with Houston awaiting them to end the season, but pushing that Q2 record to 7-3 would put a lot less pressure on that game to end the year. They are still in that last 4 byes territory, so losses aren’t detrimental but they move them closer to that cut line. Just make it easy and go 2-0 how bout that? 

–WCC–

Locks:

zags  smc

–Others–

On the Right Track:

Florida Atlantic: 23-3 (15-2) — Q1: (2-1) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (10-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS (157) TW’s (1)

fau

The Owls suffered a bit of a blow to their at-large hopes with another loss, but crucially it was Q2 and not worse as they still are above .500 in Q1-2 games and have 0 losses outside of that. To me, that is good enough for an at-large as it stands today but another loss could put things in jeopardy if they don’t take care of business in the Conference USA tournament. It is all in their hands at this point, as they look similar to Murray St from a year ago and even Davidson who got in as a 10 seed at-large last season. A quiet 4-0 run down the stretch should make things rather cozy as they enter conference tourney play. 

 

Bubble Watch – Wk 2 (2/13)

The first official update of the Bubble Watch is here and what an insane week of upsets it was once again, which has really become par for the course in 2023. #1 Purdue lost, Tennessee, once a top-5 ranked team, lost twice on buzzer beating 3’s and what is going on with all the blue bloods? UNC, Duke, Kentucky are all reeling right now as the Tar Heels and Wildcats find themselves barely hanging on to their tournament lives, and Duke is falling closer and closer to the cut line with every passing game. The Big 12 power dynamics are shifting, as Oklahoma St and Texas rise while TCU and Iowa St fall. Also, will the Pac-12 only be a 2-bid league? Can the Mountain West usurp the Conference of Champions? Then you have the Big 10, where 11 of the 14 teams have a legitimate path forward to an at-large bid, who will survive the carnage? All that and more are tackled in this one, let’s get it. (All info as of 2/13)


–ACC–

Locks:

Virginia    MIAMI

On the Right Track:

Pitt: 18-7 (11-3) — Q1: (4-2) Q2: (4-3) Q3: (2-1) Q4: (8-1) SOS: (72) TW’s (6)

pittWell Pitt is hanging in there and avoiding disaster in the ACC which is full of opportunities to blow up a resumé. A 2-0 week is exactly what the doctor ordered as they stay on track to be dancing in March. There are still plenty of opportunities to lose games they shouldn’t and put themselves in a dangerous position though as 4 of the final 6 are going to be in the Q3-4 range. So long as the Panthers go at worst 3-3 down the stretch I think they get in, although 3-3 would probably put them towards that last 4 byes territory. It starts this week with what should be an auto W at home against BC and then a tough one at Virginia Tech who is playing for their tournament lives. I don’t view that as a must win, but a 2-0 week from Pitt and they’ll likely be in the lock category so it’s obviously a huge opportunity to stamp their ticket and leave no doubts.  

Duke: 17-8 (8-6) — Q1: (2-7) Q2: (5-1) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (33) TW’s (5)

dukeWell that’s two giant opportunities for the Blue Devils to really feel secure gone by the wayside as they got blown out at Miami (FL) and then lost controversially at Virginia. They are now below .500 in Q1-2 games, which puts them closer to the cut line than they’ve probably been all season. To put it in perspective, the best seeding for a team last season with that being true was Seton Hall as an 8 seed. They also had 6 Q1 wins, so things aren’t looking great. Do I think they are truly in danger of missing the dance all together? No. But, the schedule doesn’t have many opportunities to bolster the resume left now, with a home game against lowly Notre Dame up next. The road game next Saturday at Syracuse will be pivotal as that would be a solid Q2 win to tilt things back in a positive direction. A 2-0 week is a must for the Dukies. 

Teetering:

N.C. State: 20-6 (10-5) — Q1: (3-4) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (10-0) SOS: (77) TW’s (3)

ncstateThe Wolfpack continued last week to be who we thought they were, as they lost a tough road game but bounced back in a big way to beat up on BC. They win the games they are supposed to, it’s just time to grab a few more quality wins to lock up this tournament resumé. The problem is with a couple of losses this team would be in dangerous territory, and this week they head to a dangerous Syracuse team and then host a desperate and talented UNC. An 0-2 week and all of a sudden N.C. State is down in the bubble mix. 1-1 and I think you breathe a sigh of relief if you’re a fan of this team, and 2-0 you might be able to lock this one up. It’s a pivotal week, not just for them but for the rest of this Conference as well as many teams are hanging around the cut line. 

North Carolina: 16-9 (8-6) — Q1: (1-8) Q2: (5-1) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (23) TW’s (2)

uncThe Tar Heels are now on the brink, with an appearance in Dayton looking like where they would end up if the season ended today every game is desperation time. They broke a 3 game losing streak to start to right the ship in dominating fashion over Clemson on Saturday but there is still work to be done. It should be a win or go home mentality every game from here on out. They get Miami at home in a chance to pick up another Q2 win, but the following game at N.C. State is a Q1 chance that they have to capitalize on. They certainly are not out of it if they only go 1-1 this week, but things would look very bleak if they go 0-2. After this week only a home game against Virginia is left to try and improve on their measly 1 Q1 win. For reference, the only at-large a season ago with 1 or fewer Q1 wins was Wyoming who played in Dayton as a 12 seed. They were also 9-1 in Q2, so again, there is much work to be done to get the Tar Heels in the dance. It’s nut up or shut up time for last season’s runner ups. 

Clemson: 18-7 (10-4) — Q1: (3-3) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (4-1) Q4: (7-2) SOS: (89) TW’s (3)

clemsonWhelp Clemson has now lost 3 in a row and have joined UNC on the cut line as they likely would end up in Dayton as well if they were to make it as of today. The Q1-2 record is not nearly as bad as the Tar Heels, but the bad losses are like an anchor just dragging the ship. 3 straight games await the Tigers that are simply must win if they want to make the tourney, as they are all Q3 or 4, so a loss would be like a bomb going off in the hull of the ship. Of course, you’re taking this thing one game at a time, but for those of us who can afford to look ahead this group ends February with games at N.C. State and Virginia. Win one of those and that just might be enough without a separate disaster. The plan is easy though going forward, go 2-0 this week. You simply can’t afford to lose these. 

Virginia Tech: 15-10 (5-9) — Q1: (3-4) Q2: (2-3) Q3: (4-2) Q4: (6-1) SOS: (60) TW’s (4)

vatechAs quickly as Va Tech got themselves into the bubble conversations they have nearly played themselves out of it as a home Q4 loss to BC does almost as much damage as the home win over Virginia did positively. It’s a classic let down spot after the huge win, but it’s one you cannot fall victim to if you’re going to get into the tournament, especially when in desperation mode like they are. It will likely take a 5-1 effort down the stretch, which starts this week with a road game against struggling Georgia Tech followed by an opportunity at home against Pitt. A 2-0 week keeps them in the hunt, but they’re still looking up at a decent list of teams ahead of them. I don’t have much confidence in such an inconsistent team but they do have a path forward and alas, that is what it takes to remain on this watch list.  

Wake Forest: 17-9 (9-6) — Q1: (1-5) Q2: (3-3) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (71) TW’s (4)

WakeWake did what they had to do this week, going 2-0 and picking up a big time home win over UNC. With only 1 game this week on the road against Miami it’s going to be tough to improve their situation, but it’s an opportunity nonetheless. They are still pretty far out of the conversation but make no mistake if they can pick up 1 of the next 2 at Miami/N.C. St then they are going to have a chance. They may need both at the end of the day, but picking up 1 gives them a shot with the ACC tourney out there to pick up another big W. It’s not an easy path for the Demon Deacons to be dancing come March but it certainly is there for the taking, they just have to take advantage of every opportunity. Frankly, I don’t have much confidence in any of the teams ahead of them so why not Wake Forest? 


–Big Ten–

Locks:

purdue-4 iu

On the Right Track:

Northwestern: 18-7 (9-5) — Q1: (6-4) Q2: (2-3) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (41) TW’s (6)

northwestern

A week that will be remembered for a long time for all involved as Northwestern took down #1 Purdue on Sunday to all but stamp their ticket to the dance. Now with 6 Q1 wins after getting back-to-back this week they are on the verge of being a sure lock in what is probably the most unexpected result in the Big Ten this season. Now in a tie for 2nd in the Big Ten, the Wildcats have a home meeting with IU for a chance to move into sole possession of 2nd place and follow it up with another home game against Iowa. What they can’t allow happen is a let down after such a big time win. As an outsider looking in you kind of have to be expecting it after seeing a court storming and coaches crying in post-game interviews after beating Purdue, but you have to somehow find a way to collect yourself and get ready for another huge week. There’s some really tough road games left on the schedule, so finding a way to take care of business at home is essential for Northwestern to punch their ticket. 

Illinois: 17-7 (8-5) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (40) TW’s (6)

illinois-4With the Minnesota game postponed the Illini were able to grant Rutgers their full attention all week and took advantage of a huge opportunity getting another Q1 win. The resumé is pretty clean but a string of losses could still put Illinois in danger of missing the dance, so this week becomes huge with 2 road games against Penn St and Indiana. It is not a huge stretch to see an 0-2 week as a real likelihood, especially with Penn St playing with what will assuredly be complete desperation. Of course Illinois is better than Penn St, and should absolutely beat them, but this is February in college basketball, expect the unexpected. Alas, with the only Q1 opportunities left all on the road if they go 0-4 their pitch at 3-10 in Q1 is going to be flimsy. This week could be more important than we think, so Underwood and company really need to find a way to steal one.  

Rutgers: 16-9 (8-6) — Q1: (4-6) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (1-1) Q4: (7-0) SOS: (24) TW’s (5)

rutgersWe spoke last week about the difficulty that awaited Rutgers this week and they in fact went 0-2 in road games with Indiana and Illinois. Not exactly something to hang your heads about but now it means there is some work to do to get back on track. The good news for the Scarlet Knights is they welcome Nebraska to town in a nice get right spot before they head to a reeling Wisconsin later in the week. The Badgers will of course be desperate for another good win but it’s a spot where Rutgers needs to come through if they want to feel safe and secure on Selection Sunday. Of course, a loss isn’t going to put them in major jeopardy just yet, but the schedule isn’t going to get any easier in the Big Ten with desperate Michigan and Penn St to follow. If you want to take the next step as a program you have to start winning some of the tough ones. A 2-0 week should lock this one up. 

Iowa: 16-9 (8-6) — Q1: (7-6) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (0-1) Q4: (6-1) SOS: (12) TW’s (7)

iowaThe Hawkeyes lost by 14 on the road against #1 Purdue, no shame in that, and then bounced back to beat lowly Minnesota. Not exactly a week that moved the needle, but for a team hovering somewhere around the 6-7 seed line no movement is better than moving backwards. This week free-falling Ohio St visits and then a big time road game with Northwestern comes up, with both teams jockeying for similar spots that one could be one to lock up the Hawkeyes. The 7 Q1 wins becoming 8 would give me all of the confidence I would need, and would give them some breathing room as well. It’s a weird resumé with those 2 Q3-4 losses hanging out there, but if Iowa can just win their home games from here on out they should be in pretty good shape. They did lose to Eastern Illinois there though, so forgive me for pausing for 1 more week. 

Maryland: 17-8 (7-5) — Q1: (3-7) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: (35) TW’s (4)

marylandLast week the recipe was this, lose to Sparty close and then beat Penn St to set yourself up for a massive W over Purdue this week. Check and check as Maryland completed steps 1 and 2. Now the Boilers come to town on Thursday in a gigantic game for the Terrapins that gives them the opportunity to make Selection Sunday a breeze. Purdue of course is now coming off of a loss and hasn’t lost back-to-back games all season so it’s no slam dunk that this will be a win for Maryland, but they have only lost once at home to UCLA so they may even be favored by Vegas. Big picture they only have 3 Q1 opportunities left on the docket and 3-10 is likely not going to be good enough, so with Purdue at home you absolutely have to capitalize or it’s going to get hot in the kitchen. Also important, don’t beat Purdue and then flop at Nebraska, just go 2-0 and make it easy on yourselves would ya?  

Michigan St:  16-9 (8-6) — Q1: (6-7) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (4-0) SOS: (3) TW’s (5)

sparty

It was a much needed week for Tom Izzo and Sparty as they went 2-0 picking up 2 Q1 wins in the process. A home win over Maryland was a must have, and then on the road a complete annihilation of Ohio State…don’t let Izzo get hot in February. This week they welcome in Minnesota and then it’s another chance at a Q1 win as they get the rematch with Michigan in Ann Arbor. The resumé at this point is so much better than it was a week ago, now sitting at 9-8 in Q1-2 games, they are inching closer to locking in an appearance. Obviously, going to Michigan and getting a win to go 2-0 this week would seal the deal, but after that is a home game against IU that would serve the same purpose. Just win your home games though and you’re in at this point Sparty, let’s get it done. 

Teetering:

Wisconsin: 14-10 (6-8) — Q1: (5-6) Q2: (3-4) Q3: (1-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (6) TW’s (4)

wisconsinIt was a very Wisconsin-esque week this week as they picked up a huge Q1 win on the road against Penn St only to go and lose at Nebraska in a Q2 loss. Listen, that SOS number is nice, and the 5 Q1 wins are going to be a major selling point, but with 4 of the final 6 at home and a road game with Minnesota out there as well there’s ample opportunity for the Badgers to leave the committee no choice. They get Michigan and Rutgers at home this week in what I would say is almost must win territory. I don’t think going 1-1 eliminates them from the conversation but big picture they need to go at least 4-2 down the stretch to hang in there I think. The recipe is just go 3-1 in these tough home games and beat Minnesota on the road, it’s very doable. Is it likely? Maybe not, but that’s what has to happen for the Badgers to squeak their way into the dance. 

Michigan: 14-11 (8-6) — Q1: (2-9) Q2: (3-5) Q3: (4-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (34) TW’s (3)

michigan

Michigan had been playing their way into this conversation and went into their home game against IU this past weekend with a chance to get themselves squarely on the cut line…and they lost. Now the path is a whole lot harder, with 4 of the final 6 on the road they are going to have to pull off some huge road upsets to make an at-large bid a reality. This week they head to Wisconsin and then host rival Sparty, but as it stands those are both Q2 wins. It’s a chance to bring that record to .500 but I don’t even think a 2-0 week puts them in the dance. Somehow some way the Wolverines need to go 4-2 down the stretch to even have a chance, which would mean finding 2 road wins to go with their 2 home games that are left. That means beating 2 of Wisconsin/Rutgers/Illinois/Indiana on the road. No small task, but a path nonetheless. That loss hurt, but it’s not quite over yet. 

Penn St: 14-11 (5-9) — Q1: (2-5) Q2: (3-5) Q3: (4-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (34) TW’s (3)

PennstWell that was about as bad as it gets for a week in the life of a bubble team, as Penn St dropped a home game in OT to fellow bubble team Wisconsin and then suffered again on the road to Maryland. Penn St needs to rack up wins now to have any chance whatsoever, as the clock is ticking on their hopes for making the tourney. The good news is the opportunities are out there, with a home game against Illinois offering up a Q1 chance followed by what should be an easy W at Minnesota. It is absolutely a must go 2-0 week for Penn St, anything worse than that and the path may have to be winning the Big Ten tournament. Now of course you can look big picture and think a 4-2 record down the stretch gives them a chance, I just have a hard time finding 4 wins if 2 of them aren’t this week. It’ll still be possible, but not very probable. It’s nut up or shut up time in Happy Valley. 


–Big 12–

Locks:

kansastexas    baylor    kstate

On the Right Track:

TCU: 17-8 (6-6) — Q1: (5-7) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (1-0) Q4: (8-1) SOS: (19) TW’s (6)

tcuTCU is in a bit of a rut thanks to injuries to two of their starters Mike Miles and Eddie Lampkin, who both missed their most recent loss at home to Baylor. They’ve now lost 3 in a row and 4 out of 5 with a road game at Iowa St up next. No off-nights in the Big 12. Obviously, things will look much better once their guys get healthy, but the slide is likely going to continue until that point and the losses mounting up could put pressure on their tournament hopes. They have 5 out of 6 games as Q1 games down the stretch, 0-5 puts them in real jeopardy with a 5-12 Q1 record and that Q4 loss hanging out there. Now, it sounds like both Miles and Lampkin should return at some point, so when that happens I would expect them to stop the bleeding, but you know how expectations can go. The one Q2 remaining game is this week as well at home against Oklahoma St, win that one and you can breathe a sigh of relief…go 0-2 this week and alarm bells are going to start sounding. 

Iowa St: 16-8 (7-5) — Q1: (6-8) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (1-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (5) TW’s (6)

iowastLast week I believe my exact words were, “Iowa St doesn’t lose at home, so I can’t see them going 0-2 this week”…well that is precisely what happened and now things are a whole lot more interesting for this group. 1 loss at home is forgivable, but the reality is they’ve now lost 4 out of 5 and are starting to reel a little bit. Unlike TCU we can’t just chalk this stretch up to injuries or other unforeseen circumstances, they’re just playing worse. What they do get is that hobbled TCU team coming to town in a huge get right spot as they try and stop the bleeding. They better make it happen, because after that are 2 road games against K-State and Texas. Go 0-3 in those games to push it to 5 straight losses and 7 out of 8 and they might be missing the dance altogether after being as high as a projected 3 seed. Deep breaths, relax, and get a home W to get this train back on the tracks. 

Teetering:

W. Virginia: 15-10 (4-8) — Q1: (4-9) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (4) TW’s (4)

wvuSo last week we laid out the path for the Mountaineers and it was simply to win the remaining home games – 1 down 3 to go on that front. Yeah the blowout loss at Texas was ugly, but picking up a Q1 win over Iowa St was massive and they get another home game this week against Texas Tech after what will likely be a loss at Baylor. So it’s a big week to hold serve and go 1-1 to stay on the right side of the bubble. Right now they lie in that 8-10 seed range and it looks like that’s where they will land on Selection Sunday barring any catastrophe. And hell, go beat Baylor on the road and really solidify yourself in the field, why not? In all likelihood that isn’t going to happen, but I do think 3-3 down the stretch is going to be enough. 

Oklahoma St: 16-9 (7-5) — Q1: (4-6) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (4-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (11) TW’s (4)

okstateOklahoma St is quietly one of the hottest teams in the Country as they’ve now won 5 straight Big 12 games, no small feat in a season like this. The most recent win @ Iowa St is probably the most impressive as their now top-10 defense is flexing its muscle. I laid out the path last week and it’s very similar to many of these Big 12 bubble teams, win your home games and you should be in. The Pokes have a chance this week to really cement themselves as they welcome the Kansas Jayhawks to Stillwater, and a win in that one would put them in a real nice spot as head down the stretch. However, a loss sets them up for a tough stretch as the next 2 after that are at TCU and W. Virginia. 3 straight losses and they could be on the wrong side of the bubble just as quickly as they were on the right side. That’s life in the Big 12 right now, but the simplest way to avoid all that headache is to just beat Kansas on Tuesday. 


–Big East–

Locks:

marquettexavier uconn

On the Right Track:

Creighton: 17-8 (11-3) — Q1: (4-5) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (6-1) Q4: (3-0) SOS: (25) TW’s (4)

creightonCreighton had just about as good of a week as anybody in the Country last week as they picked up 2 huge Q1 wins on the road against Seton Hall and at home over Uconn. Now, after being 9-8 in mid-January the Blue Jays have reeled off 8 straight wins and look like the team everyone thought they would be entering the season. At this point disaster would have to strike in order for them not to get in, but this is college basketball you just can’t be too sure with these types of things. This is a team that lost to Nebraska at full strength so forgive me for showing a little more patience before locking them up. Especially when this week features 2 road games against teams desperate for big wins to improve the resumé in Providence and St. John’s. It would take an 0-2 week for you to not see Creighton in the lock group next week, but we have seen much stranger things than that. 

Teetering:

Providence: 18-7 (10-4) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (4-1) Q4: (9-0) SOS: (58) TW’s (2)

providence The Friars racked up another questionable loss this week at St. John’s and the win over Georgetown does nothing positive so Providence is starting to get desperate for big wins. I don’t think a combined 5 Q1-2 wins is going to be nearly enough to get them in so as good as the record may look they are on shaky ground resumé wise. Next up though is Creighton at home, which is a perfect Q1 chance to add to the mix and the Friars have yet to lose at home this season so this is a massive opportunity. A 2-0 week, with Villanova also visiting Rhode Island, would make them feel a little bit cozier as they try and put some separation between them and the cut line. Ultimately I think a 4-2 run to end it would get them in, giving them 1 more win in Q1 and Q2 at least. So there is some margin for error but with every loss that margin continues to thin. 

Seton Hall: 15-11 (8-7) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (2-4) Q3: (4-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (20) TW’s (3)

setonhallWell last week I laid out a very optimistic case for how Seton Hall could continue to play themselves onto the right side of the bubble, man did that not go according to plan. The Pirates had a chance at 2 big wins and went 0-2 and now likely needs to at least go 4-1 down the stretch to have a fighting chance. This week a home game against Georgetown is just a land mine you hope to avoid going off, and then a trip to Connecticut gives you chance at the miracle you need. It is as desperate as you can get for a bubble team, and yes they can lose to Uconn and still have an outside shot, but that’s the only loss left on the schedule. They are on as thin of ice as you can get in this bubble game. Tough times for the Pirates but that path, however dark and dangerous, still exists, and that’s all they can cling to at this stage. 


–Pac-12–

Locks:

arizona ucla

On the Right Track: N/A

Teetering: 

USC: 17-8 (9-5) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (5-2) Q3: (6-2) Q4: (4-0) SOS (54) TW’s (2)

uscOh no…oh God no not like this. USC is self sabotaging at the most critical time of the season as they just lost back-to-back games in the state of Oregon. Oregon St is 202nd per Kenpom in the Country. You can’t lose that game in February, what are you doing USC? I said last week they needed to go 3-1 over their next 4,  well that’s out the window…Now every game is go time, there’s no more room for bad losses or even missed opportunities. The Trojans have 2 must-win games this week at home vs Cal and Stanford, which by the way will do nothing for the resumé. It’s just about survival for them right now, as the last 4 games are when they will need to capitalize and play their way in. They get Colorado and Utah on the road and then the Arizona teams come to town to end it. Those 4 games are now essential and anything worse than 3-1 in those, so 5-1 in total, and the Trojans might be on the outside looking in. 

Oregon:  15-11 (9-6) — Q1: (4-7) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (3-2) Q4: (4-0) SOS (13) TW’s (3)

oregon

Oregon had a chance to make last week a gigantic step forward but they settled for a 1-1 stretch with a home win over USC and then a home loss to UCLA. It’s no shame to lose to a team as good as UCLA, but when you’re fighting for one of the last spots in the tournament that is a chance that’s tough to let slip away. Now they’re faced with games against the bottom half of the Pac-12 which is really just more opportunities to shoot yourself in the foot. Road games this week against Washington and Washington St are ones you have to have if you want to feel secure. Honestly, anything short of 5-0 down the stretch is going to leave Oregon firmly on the cut line. A 2-0 week this week and all of a sudden they’re 10-9 in Q1-2 games which might be enough to put them on the right side of the bubble. This one feels like it’s going to come down to the wire.  

Arizona St: 18-8 (9-6) — Q1: (3-2) Q2: (3-5) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (7-1) SOS (73) TW’s (1)

azstateTo my surprise Arizona St actually took care of business last week and won 2 road games in the Pac-12. Granted it took overtime for them to beat Cal of all teams but nevertheless they went 2-0 and have put themselves in position to play their way into the field of 68. This week its two Q2 opportunities at home against Colorado and Utah, must win games in my estimation as they need to bring that Q2 record up to .500. They are right there with Oregon on the outside looking in, but the difference is they have 5 opportunities to notch Q1/Q2 wins as we close things out. I think going 3-2 gives them a real shot at it, anything more and they would likely be sitting pretty good. That does mean they need to pick up 1 road win against Arizona/UCLA/USC. 0-3 in those games would likely still keep them out of it. Therein-lies the importance of this week. 

Utah: 17-9 (10-5) — Q1: (1-5) Q2: (3-3) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (10-0) SOS (85) TW’s (1)

utahIn the not-so-easy plan for the Utes to make a late push into the tourney we can check off step 1, beat Colorado at home. Next up are two road games at Arizona and Arizona St. I think they need to steal 1 of those to give themselves a fighting chance, but 0-2 doesn’t eliminate them it just means they have to win the last 3. As I lined out last week, there’s opportunity every night the rest of the way for Utah, as the schedule was extremely back-end loaded. They have two must-win home games against UCLA and USC and then need to pick up at least 1 road game with a visit to Colorado joining the trips to Arizona. Like I said last week, it’s not probable, but it certainly isn’t improbable either, so for now Utah remains in the hunt, even if they are as far out as anyone on this list. 


–SEC–

Locks:

bama  vols mizzou

On the Right Track: N/A

Teetering:

Auburn: 17-8 (7-5) — Q1: (2-6) Q2: (5-2) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS (47) TW’s (2)

auburnAuburn’s resumé is taking blow after blow right now as this group has now lost 4 out of 5 and are in desperate need of a win to right the ship. An 0-2 week at A&M and at home to Bama continued what has been just a brutal stretch, but there’s a little bit of a respite coming as Mizzou comes to town next followed by Vandy and Ole Miss. That is a stretch where you have to get things right and get the train back on the tracks. They are only Q2 games but to balloon that out to 7-2 would look really nice, and finding a way to just hold serve is what they need at this point. They’ll have a chance later on to pick up another Q1 win, but right now all the focus has to just be to get back into the W column, and it’ll be no easy task with Mizzou feeling themselves after a road win in Knoxville. It is now nut up or shut up time for Auburn, there’s no more room for error. 

Kentucky: 16-9 (7-5) — Q1: (1-7) Q2: (6-1) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (6-1) SOS (51) TW’s (1)

kentuckyWell I may have gotten ahead of myself last week when discussing Kentucky, as I was daydreaming about a repeat of 2014 only to watch these Wildcats go 0-2 in a week I thought they would go 2-0. The home loss to Arkansas was one thing, but following it up with a loss to Georgia? What is going on in Lexington right now? Just when you thought this team had turned the corner and figured out how to play together and win games they throw up a dud like that. We are now about to find out who this Kentucky team really is, as we’ve seen really good versions and really bad as well. They now head to a hot Mississippi St team only to head back to Rupp to take on Tennessee. Another 0-2 week might be all she wrote for a program that hasn’t won a NCAA tournament game since 2019. Could Calipari be on the hot seat? What a change in tune a week can provide. 

Arkansas: 17-8 (6-6) — Q1: (2-5) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (7-1) Q4: (4-0) SOS (45) TW’s (3)

arkansasLast week was an interesting one for this program as they picked up a massive road win over Kentucky only to lay an egg at home against Miss St. All of that said I think the Q1 win was enough to tilt them onto the right side of the bubble, but they are on thin ice as they head down the stretch in the SEC. A piece of good news was star FR Nick Smith returned to action, albeit in limited fashion, in their last game and he provides them with some extra scoring punch when healthy. A massive road game against fellow bubble team Texas A&M awaits the Hogs this week, and a win in that one would really make them feel good about their chances. Still, with a loss there but a win later in the week at home over Florida they would hold serve and keep themselves in contention and likely on the right side of the bubble. Can’t go 0-2 though, absolutely cannot afford that. 

Mississippi St: 17-8 (5-7) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (2-3) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (9-0) SOS (48) TW’s (4)

missstMississippi St is now white hot as they’ve won 5 in a row and just went into Fayetteville and knocked off Arkansas to put themselves barely on the right side of the bubble. It was a long climb after dropping to 12-8 but they are in position now to be dancing in March, they just need to take care of business down the stretch. It starts this week with what should be a desperate Kentucky team coming to Starkville. That’s followed by a rivalry matchup at free-falling Ole Miss so a 2-0 week is absolutely in the cards. It would also help them to get that ugly Q2 record up to 4-3 which would look much nicer and make them feel a whole lot more comfortable. Worst case scenario is a 1-1 week though, as the good Kentucky team could show up and knock them off. Just can’t afford to go to Ole Miss and lose. 

Texas A&M: 18-7 (10-2) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (8-2) SOS (79) TW’s (2)

a&mTexas A&M is playing unbelievably well and is now 12-2 since losing to Wofford in December. There are two major holdups though when it comes to their resumé – only 2 Q1 wins, and those 2 Q4 losses. Last season only Wyoming made it in with 2 or fewer Q1 wins, and they were 9-1 in Q2 games. Needless to say, while the Aggies are playing like a tournament team, this is a resumé game and they still have some work to do if they want to hold up on Selection Sunday this year. The great news for them is they have 5 more chances to rack up Q1 wins, with the first coming Tuesday at home against Arkansas. That is followed by a trip to Mizzou, win just one of these this week and things start to look more safe. They also still have Tennessee and Bama at home, so plenty of chances to punch their ticket, just have to take advantage. 


–Mountain West–

Locks:

sdsu

On the Right Track:

Nevada: 19-6 (10-3) — Q1: (3-4) Q2: (5-2) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS (74) TW’s (4)

nevada

Last week I said the Wolfpack needed to finish 6-1, which would require them to either beat New Mexico or Utah St on the road. Well, they knocked off New Mexico and now look poised to make the dance for the first time since Steve Alford took over in 2020. All they have to do is win the games they are supposed to, and they can even afford to lose to Utah St on the road this week. Just finish 4-1 and I think they are golden. Now, if they for some reason lay an egg and suffer a Q3 or 4 loss while these other bubble teams are racking up more quality wins, things might start getting interesting. It really is as simple as beating who you are supposed to at this stage. This team is March Madness good. 

Teetering:

New Mexico: 19-6 (6-6) — Q1: (3-3) Q2: (2-0) Q3: (8-3) Q4: (5-0) SOS (112) TW’s (3)

unm I’m not sure what to do with this New Mexico team as they’ve now lost 3 in a row and are 5-6 since starting the season 14-0. The massive wins over Saint Mary’s, San Diego St and Boise St are still keeping them afloat, but 3 Q3 losses puts them in major jeopardy of missing the dance altogether. Anything worse than a 5-1 finish to the season would put them in danger of being NIT bound, which seems insane after the way they started the season. This week has to be a bounce back week, with a home game over Wyoming and then a Q2 ish game at San Jose St. Gotta go 2-0, simple as that, because after this week it’s back-to-back matchups with San Diego St and Boise St. It is nut up or shut up time for the Lobos as time is running out to save this thing from being a complete collapse. 

Boise St: 19-6 (9-3) — Q1: (2-3) Q2: (5-1) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (6-1) SOS (87) TW’s (1)

boise

Just 1 game last week for the Broncos and they took care of business at home against Wyoming. It’s no time for letup at this point, as 2 more games this week at Colorado St and back home against UNLV should both be wins if they want to hear their name on Selection Sunday. Make no mistake, the margins are extremely thin as they are short on big time wins to offset those bad losses. The Texas A&M win is aging nicely and has turned over to a Q1 win to help things out, but they may need to finish 5-1 to have a shot. They just need to hold serve until San Diego St visits later in the season, which will be the perfect opportunity for a signature win to help make their case more convincing come March. 

Utah St: 18-7 (8-5) — Q1: (0-4) Q2: (6-1) Q3: (9-0) Q4: (3-2) SOS (94) TW’s (1) 

utahstUtah St is on the very edge of this thing, with absolutely no margin for error they essentially need to win out or damn near it to have a chance at an at-large. This week is Air Force at home followed by a major opportunity with Nevada visiting the Aggies. You either go 2-0 this week or you will have to be looking at the MWC tourney for your shot at participating in the madness. Last week’s loss to San Jose St was just about the nail in the coffin, but a 5-0 finish would put them squarely back in the conversation. So you’re telling me there’s a chance? Yep, but man do I not have confidence in them to pull it off. 


–American–

Locks:

houston

On the Right Track: N/A

Teetering: 

Memphis: 19-6 (9-3) — Q1: (2-2) Q2: (4-3) Q3: (6-1) Q4: (7-0) SOS (77) TW’s (1)

memphisLast week was simply a hold serve kind of week, and they did exactly that going 2-0 and setting themselves up for an absolutely massive week ahead. First up UCF at home, which gives them a chance to rack up another Q2 win and really play themselves into a more firm position. Right now I have them barely in the field, but another W would help them gain their footing on that side of the bubble. After that is a road trip to Houston, which is both an extremely difficult game and a gigantic opportunity to absolutely cement themselves into the field of 68. It’s probably asking too much to pick up that win, but going 1-1 this week is imperative. There are some tough ones down the stretch, making this matchup with UCF all that more important. Last time they met it went to 2OT, maybe not as dramatic this time? 

–WCC–

Locks:

zags  smc

–Others–

On the Right Track:

Florida Atlantic: 22-2 (14-1) — Q1: (2-1) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (10-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS (215) TW’s (1)

fau

FAU has had an unbelievable season and with a 5-2 record in Q1-2 games it’s looking like they won’t even need the Conference USA tourney to be dancing in March. All they have to do is continue to take care of business and beat everyone like they’ve been doing all season. They may even be able to afford one more loss but I wouldn’t want to push it. Last year Davidson got in as an at-large with a 6-5 Q1-2 record, so I’m thinking one more loss won’t sink their chances. As of now they look like they could be as high as a 7 seed, similar to Murray St a season ago. What a season and what a turnaround after losing 15 games last season. 

 

CBB Contender Series 7.0

Welcome to the place where we go beyond traditional ranking systems. Sure, you can look at the AP top-25 or the NCAA’s NET rankings or simply Kenpom’s top-10. We’re diving deeper, acknowledging that the human eye can be misleading, and that data is the best way to approach predicting the madness come March. Don’t just take my word here for it, take a look here where I break down exactly what the data is telling me. I will be defining teams as “vulnerable” or “impenetrable” or simply “flyers”, exactly what backs up my logic for these can also found in the first article. For now, a synopsis: Vulnerable teams are the statistical archetype of a team that is likely to be upset the first weekend. Impenetrable teams are the antithesis of that, fitting the archetype of teams who almost never miss the Sweet 16. Finally the flyers, teams that don’t fit those narrow barometers but find themselves in or around the top-10. So, every week we’ll take a look at Kenpom’s 10 most efficient teams and define them, look at their week (or season if they’re new) and assess where they truly stand in the Contender vs Pretender debate. To see my initial breakdown of these teams refer to v-1, the following will be an update on the week each team had if they were also in the top-10 last week. *—–* indicates change in archetype.

  1. Houston (23-2) Off (7) Def (7) – IMPENETRABLE
    • The Cougars are ridiculously good, a machine you could say. If you’ve been following along you will remember that I’ve spoken about how Houston has a tendency to flip a switch in games, well they put together two really dominant wire-to-wire performances this week to kind of quiet that noise. They got their revenge with a road win against Temple by 16 and then a 38 point drubbing of Tulsa capped off a fantastic week. Coach Sampson has to happy to finally see his guys come out firing on all cylinders in the 1st half and not wait until late to turn it on. They remain top-10 in both categories of efficiency and are the runaway #1 team in these efficiency rankings. At this point the only major concern would be are they battle tested enough? Similar question people had for Gonzaga for years, and while it’s a valid question, I just think the way they play lends itself to translating to any opponent. It’s all about energy and effort on defense and the glass. Offensively is certainly a place to watch, as things get stagnant sometimes, but man they have some great playmakers in Sasser and Shead to make tough shots. Not to mention Jarace Walker. They have to be the odds on favorite right now.
  2. Alabama (18-2) Off (15) Def (6) – *IMPENETRABLE*
    • Listen I have fawned over Nate Oates and Bama many times over in this series and it continues to shine through. Yes, they had a bad loss at Oklahoma a few weeks back, but since then they are 3-0 and have done so in dominating fashion. Now, this next week we really get to learn something about this team, as they head to in-state rival Auburn and then head to Knoxville Tennessee. The two toughest games on the SEC schedule and they get them back-to-back. If you’re Oates you have to be happy with going 1-1, obviously 2-0 and you may be looking at the #1 overall seed in bracketology and maybe these rankings. Realistically, 0-2 doesn’t kill you, but it’s all about how this young team competes. When they’re playing hard and connected, they are the best team in the Country, see the road win over Houston. The defense lapses at times though, and on the road in these environments you can’t afford that. They also can go on cold spells on offense and are headed to 2 of the better defenses in the Country, so it will be an illuminating week to say the least for the Tide. For now, welcome to the impenetrable club.
  3. UCLA (20-4) Off (29) Def (3) – FLYER
    • Well the Bruins held serve this week, but the resume could really use a big win as the walls are closing in on their bid for a 1 or 2 seed. Lucky for them they have an opportunity for a Q1 win this week with a trip to Eugene to face a surging Oregon team. The one budding worry for this team is the offensive efficiency, as it continues to plummet, down to 29th. They aren’t that close to the vulnerable cut line at 50, but it becomes more concerning by the week as it has gone from 15th 3 weeks ago to now 29th. That’s with Amari Bailey back and actually producing well as he scored 24 in their last game. Jaquez and Tiger Campbell have been in a shooting slump, so I’m not too worried but nonetheless it gives you pause on what is an otherwise very impressive team. Like we’ve discussed they are perfectly in the mold of a Mick Cronin team, stingy defense ultra-slow-paced offense. It did work in 2021, so maybe a repeat? We may learn a little about them this week.
  4. Tennessee (19-5) Off (64) Def (1) – VULNERABLE
    • Listen, I have written extensively about how I think the Vols are overvalued and not to be trusted due to their offensive inefficiencies. Now look where we are. 2 out of 3 losses now for Tennessee, to Florida and Vandy who aren’t really even bubble teams. We thought maybe the introduction of Zakai Ziegler and Jordan-James into prominent roles would propel this team, but the issues seem to be worsening. It’s fair to mention the 1 win they scored 46 points. Unbalanced teams get upset in March. Repeat it to yourself, bury it deep inside of you, burn it into your memory. Do not trust Tennessee. Do not trust Tennessee. Now, of course I don’t expect them to lose to Missouri at home this weekend, but that matchup with Alabama could really expose the Vols. And actually, they end the season with trips to A&M, Kentucky, and Auburn as well, so there’s a lot of time for people to start catching on to what I’ve been saying. Or they prove me wrong, time will tell.
  5. Purdue (23-2) Off (3) Def (21) – FLYER
    • The Boilers suffered a tough loss on the road to rival Indiana, where that defensive number we’ve been talking about reared its ugly head as they gave up 50 points in the 1st half. They bounced back later in the week in a 14-point win over Iowa however, and it seems pretty obvious what the Boilers need to cut down nets in March. They have to be able to defend, just at a good enough level to get them through some shooting slumps. The offense is there, Zach Edey is an absolute nightmare, and either you let him put up 36 points and dominate 1-on-1 or you double him and give the ancillary players open jumpers. IU let him play, Iowa doubled, it doesn’t matter the Boilers are going to score. The difference was Purdue was locked in defensively from the tip against Iowa, and that’s what it will take for them to get to Houston. No nights off. Edey is dominant enough, it just comes down to defense. This week will test them as well with 2 road games against tourney teams Northwestern and Maryland. The grind continues.
  6. Uconn (19-6) Off (8) Def (20) – FLYER
    • The Huskies have been all over the place this season but this past win over Marquette was as good as we’ve seen them since December. They’re still only 5-6 in their last 11 games after starting 14-0 and looking like the best team in the Country, but a dominating win over a really good Marquette team has to breathe a whole lot of confidence into this group. They have 1 game until we meet again, at Creighton who is white hot. They beat them at home already, but that was before they really go rolling, so this is going to be a tough matchup. Even just playing this one close to the wire will give me confidence the Huskies may be back to their old ways. The real concerning trend is the defensive number that had plummeted from top-5 to 20, but it has stabilized there. Maybe this is more reflective of who they really are? If so, I’m not sure they can be trusted in March, but they have plenty of time to sway me. It starts on Saturday.
  7. Saint Mary’s (20-5) Off (45) Def (5) – FLYER
    • The Gaels just suffered a tough loss for the resume as they went down to Loyola Marymount, who consequently has now beaten both Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s. Still it’s a bad loss for Saint Mary’s who was trying to win the WCC outright for the first time. They still have a 1 game lead but also have to go to Gonzaga to end the season. Looking like a shared championship unless the Zags slip up or they can sweep them. As far as March goes the Gaels are essentially Tennessee but a little less athletic with some better shooters. The comparison is they struggle to score but can lock you down defensively. They are one of those teams that looks like they could make a run but also may end up out the first weekend because they can’t score more than 65 points against a good team (in regulation). The only way I see myself as being confident in this group is if they go to Gonzaga and win, which I don’t expect. I don’t think either WCC team gets out of the 1st weekend, but what do I know. Also it’s February, time for takes that get exposed in a month.
  8. Arizona (22-3) Off (11) Def (35) – *FLYER*
    • Arizona has been in and out of this top-10 but is in the midst of a 7 game winning streak that is taken them from 18th to 8th. The improvement has been defensively, as over the those 7 they’ve allowed less than a point per possession in 5, with the other 2 being games they score over 90. So, both ends have been good to them at times, and while the schedule of late hasn’t been a murderers row by any means, the streak did start with wins over UCLA and USC. They finish the season with 6 Q1/2 games, so it will be interesting to see how well they fare, but if they continue to play well defensively I see no reason they can’t win their next 4. It’s the last 2 games that will test them with USC and UCLA on the road. The Wildcats are not the offensive team they were last year, and I think that self reflection has happened and that’s why you see the improvement on defense in the back half of the season. Still, they dominate inside with Tubelis and Ballo, and have just enough shooting with Ramey and Kerr at the guard spots to be dangerous. We’ve talked about their wide open Gonzaga-esque style of play that Tommy Lloyd brought over with him and the key for them is to continue to improve defensively. Last year’s team got knocked out by a tough Houston team that locked them down, and it may take another effort like that this year to take out Arizona.
  9. Creighton (16-8) Off (26) Def (13) – *FLYER*
    • Creighton being in this spot at this point in the season now with 8 losses shows just how weak the field is after the first 5 or 6 teams. In fact, last season their overall efficiency would have been good for 15th. That speaks to the parity this season, but they are here nonetheless so lets talk about em. Creighton was one of the favorites heading into the season, starting in the top-10 of basically every ranking system but fell to 6-6 in mid-December after a 6-game losing streak, in part without starting center Ryan Kalkbrenner. In the 21 games he’s played they’re 16-5, so a little different, but still their best win is a home win over Xavier so I’m pumping the brakes a little. Their starting 5 is as talented as any, and they have playmakers and guys who can score at all 5 positions. They rebound, defend well with Kalkbrenner holding down the middle as well and can really shoot it as well. The weakness is the bench, but as long as guys stay out of foul trouble they can beat anybody. The win at Seton hall this past week is what vaulted them up in the standings, as they’ve now climbed from a low of 29 to 9th. Quite a run, but a 7 game winning streak can do that for you. Two huge prove it matchups await the Blue Jays as they welcome Uconn on Saturday and then head to Providence. 2 Q1 chances for a team with a paltry 2-5 record in that category. Creighton is dangerous, and are a dark horse team to make a run as their numbers and resume are scarred by Kalkbrenner’s injury so they are worth watching, especially this week.  
  10. Texas (19-5) Off (14) Def (32) – FLYER
    • Texas continues to linger around this range after dropping a tough road game to Kansas. However, they did go into Kansas St and get a massive road win to split their trip through Kansas and hold on to their top-10 spot. Ever since Chris Beard left the program things have changed up a little bit, as the defensive efficiency has ballooned to 32 but offensively, they have actually improved. I can’t see a Beard led team getting beat 88-80 like they did in Kansas, but scoring 80 was also a rarely seen feat. I’m not sure what to think about the Longhorns at this point, as I’m not sure I trust them enough defensively but there’s no doubt they have a ton of talent and have won some huge games, with and without Beard. A rookie fill-in coach makes the case weaker, but at this point I wouldn’t be surprised by a 1st weekend exit or a Final Four run from this team. It’s all about defense for them. This week they get WVU at home and then head to Texas Tech, in what should be a 2-0 week, but the Red Raiders will be desperate so you never know.

Dropped: Kansas (9)

Bubble Watch 2023

Welcome to the most in-depth and comprehensive March Madness Bubble Watch on the internet, at least that I’m aware of, and please feel free to burst my bubble (pun intended) and make me aware of a better one. It can be confusing heading to Bracket Matrix or your favorite bracketologist’s page to try and figure out who may be close to the cut line and who may be solidly in, and why. Hell even as a self-proclaimed bracketologist myself I get lost in the weeds sometimes, so maybe this column is more of a cathartic reprieve and organizational tool for me than it is a source of joy for you but hey, I appreciate you nonetheless. Anyway, enough of the pleasantries let’s dive in…It’s been a wild season up to this point as there is seemingly no dominant, or even elite, teams this season as we’ve now set the record for most AP top-2 losses in one season with over a month to go. March figures to be as wild and unpredictable as ever, but what we can’t allow to be wild and unpredictable is Selection Sunday, and that’s why we’re all here right? I’m going to assign teams to 3 groups – Locks, On the Right Track and Teetering. Any team left out is not even on the radar, so maybe 4 groups for you sticklers out there. The “Locks” are basically teams I don’t see a world they don’t get in. I must admit I’m a below average gambler so I am going to be quite stingy when it comes to assigning locks, ya better have the resumé to lose almost every game left and still get in. The “On the Right Track” group are teams who will need to meltdown in order to not get in, but we’ve all seen a meltdown or two. Generally they are probably on the 6-7 line or higher and have a significant number of Q1 wins and positive momentum sending them in the right direction. Lastly the “Teetering” group, I’m sure at this point you can figure it out but nevertheless these could be teams on the right side or wrong side of the bubble right now that I could see going either direction come Selection Sunday. With every team not in the lock category I will include their record in each Quadrant (per the NET rankings the selection committee will use), SOS (taken from ESPN’s BPI) and a final category Tournament Wins (TW’s) (which will be the total number of wins against teams in the projected field, as calculated by me). Also worth mentioning, obviously any of these teams can get their way in by winning the Conference tourney, I’m assuming with all of these blurbs they will need an at-large bid. So without further ado, let’s get it. All info as of 2/6. Check out my current bracket here


–ACC–

Locks: N/A

On the Right Track:

Virginia: 17-4 (9-3) — Q1: (4-4) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (26) TW’s (4)

Virginia The ACC is not providing Virginia with a ton of opportunities to rack up quality wins, but thanks to two huge wins over Baylor and Illinois in the non-conference Virginia is in the best shape of anyone in this Conference. This isn’t as dominant of a defensive team as we’ve seen in the past with Virginia but man they can shoot it, so nobody is going to want to see the Hoos in March. They have 3 road losses to conference teams who are all projected in the field and the home loss to Houston, not bad, they just need to take advantage of every opportunity they can to pick up meaningful W’s. The good news for them is they welcome N.C. State and Duke into town this week and a 2-0 week could move them into Lock territory. The danger of the ACC this year is there are a lot of Q3/Q4 games that don’t add much but can sink a resumé, but for now they sit on the 4 line. This is a huge week for Virginia to try and jump up into the 2-3 conversation and out of any bubble talks.  

Miami (FL): 18-5 (9-4) — Q1: (5-4) Q2: (2-0) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (57) TW’s (6)

MIAMIAn ugly loss to Georgia Tech is really the only thing holding the Canes back as they continue to rack up wins over quality teams, beating Providence/Rutgers/NC ST/Virginia/Va Tech/Clemson all of whom are in my projected field. A victory over Duke at home this week likely locks things up as they also welcome lowly Louisville after that. I can’t see 20-5 Miami missing the field. This is one of the most elite offenses in the Country so they just need to keep taking care of business. As far as resumé building goes they just improved tremendously with a win @ Clemson and climb into 5 seed territory. With 5 of their final 7 at home Miami is poised to finish strong and be one of the better resumés the ACC has to offer. 

Duke: 17-6 (8-4) — Q1: (2-6) Q2: (5-0) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (49) TW’s (5)

dukeThe Blue Devils are starting to play better and looked good down the stretch in the win over UNC, but as difficult of a week as there is in the ACC awaits them as they head to Virginia and Miami back-to-back. With only 2 Q1 wins over Xavier and Iowa, these are 2 massive opportunities to stamp their ticket, but they certainly wouldn’t be out of it if they go 0-2. Still, 2-8 in Q1 games will not look good come seeding time and they may find themselves dropping toward the teetering line should that be their reality. The schedule softens up a bit after that, with the only Q1 opportunity of the regular season after this week being UNC the last game, so finding a way to pull one of these out could be huge for where they end up on Selection Sunday.  

Pitt: 16-7 (9-3) — Q1: (4-2) Q2: (4-4) Q3: (1-0) Q4: (7-1) SOS: (61) TW’s (5)

pittPitt is one of those classic play to the level of your competition teams as they have a number of impressive wins including UNC x2, Virginia, Miami and N.C. State. However, they also have some befuddling losses like most recently at home to Florida St who is really struggling. The NC SOS is not great, but the wins cannot be ignored and if they can just avoid any additional horrific losses then they should be comfortably in. The somewhat bad news for this team is there are a laundry list of potential land mines waiting for them, as they have the bottom 5 ACC teams all left in February and only Miami and Va Tech on the road as potential chances to improve the resumé. They can lose those two, but if they start racking up more losses to the bottom feeders it could get dicey. I see a bad loss but a Q1 road win in store because it’s Pitt, and that’s what they do. Why make it easy?

Teetering:

N.C. State: 19-5 (9-4) — Q1: (3-4) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (10-0) SOS: (82) TW’s (3)

ncstateN.C. State continues to rack up wins over bad teams, and while they don’t have any bad losses at some point they are going to need to notch another top tier win to feel secure. A trip to Virginia presents just that opportunity, but as we’ve discussed if they don’t capitalize the ACC just doesn’t provide many Q1 chances so thing will get interesting down the stretch. They are playing really good basketball and really just need to continue to win the games they are supposed to and they should get in, but a road win over Virginia or Duke later this season would lock things up. As of now they’re sitting in that 8-9 seed territory, so some work to do to make things comfortable.

North Carolina: 15-8 (7-5) — Q1: (1-6) Q2: (5-1) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (21) TW’s (1)

uncThis team, with so many of the pivotal pieces back from last year’s runner up finish, having this record and genuinely being on the bubble in February is an abomination. The good news, if there is any, is that there are actually quite a few opportunities ahead for the Tar Heels, with another matchup with Duke, as well as Miami, Virginia and N.C. State give them ample opportunities to pick up some quality wins. I genuinely am not sure if 1 Q1 win is going to be good enough to get the Tar Heels in the dance, despite all of the talent we know the roster has. They go to Wake Forest this week and then welcome Clemson which gives at minimum 2 Q2 chances with Wake teetering on the line of Q1. There’s really no bad losses on the board, but their best win is a neutral court win over a reeling Ohio St team who isn’t even really in contention to make the dance. They HAVE to pick up some quality wins or they may be NIT bound. Yes, you read that right.  

Clemson: 18-6 (10-3) — Q1: (3-2) Q2: (4-0) Q3: (4-1) Q4: (7-2) SOS: (94) TW’s (5)

clemsonClemson’s non-conference was a joke, with their best win being a home win over Penn St and 2 losses to South Carolina and Loyola (Chi), both 200+ ranked teams. However, they still are 7-2 in Q1-2 games which is impressive. It is a weird resumé to seed quite frankly because of the 3 horrific losses juxtaposed with that solid record against quality teams. They have 3 more Q1 opportunities with UNC, NC St, and Virginia all on the road, but lose all 3 of those and all of a sudden you are 3-5 in Q1 with those 3 horrible losses. If they go 4-3 down the stretch it is going to be a very important ACC tournament for the Tigers. They will undoubtedly be squarely on the bubble. However, 5-2 with a road win over one of those 3 and things look much safer. Huge stretch run to say the least. 

Virginia Tech: 14-9 (4-8) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (2-3) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (54) TW’s (4)

vatechThe Hokies just put themselves back in the conversation with a home win over Virginia. Stack that on top Duke, Oklahoma St and UNC wins and you have a tournament worthy resumé brewing. 3 straight games against the bottom feeders in the ACC await, absolute must wins, and if they accomplish that then back-to-back home games with Pitt and Miami will offer up the golden ticket to the Dance. Is 5 wins more wins in a row too much to ask for? I’m not sure, but when your season is on the line with each passing game, you would hope that’s a realistic goal. If they can go 7-1 down the stretch, with the lone loss at Duke, I think this team is dancing. 6-2 and there’s still hope, anything short of that is likely a trip to the NIT. It’s go time.  

Wake Forest: 15-9 (7-6) — Q1: (2-6) Q2: (2-2) Q3: (4-1) Q4: (7-0) SOS: (63) TW’s (4)

WakeWake finally snapped their 4 game skid with a win over Notre Dame, but frankly that doesn’t do much for the resumé. At this point they are on the wrong side of the bubble, but they have some opportunities, including a home game against UNC this week to make a push. Road games against Miami and N.C. State are the other 2 Q1 chances, but if they’re 2-9 in that category that’s all she wrote. I think they need to find a way to win 2 of those 3 to feel safe, 1 to even stay in the conversation. We have seen now after last year that late runs in a Conference tournament might not be much of a factor (shout-out Texas A&M), so you have to get yourself situated in the regular season. It’s not out of the question just yet, but they have to be near perfect from here on out. 


–Big Ten–

Locks:

purdue-4

On the Right Track:

Illinois: 16-7 (7-5) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (38) TW’s (5)

illinois-4The Illini have had some ups and downs throughout the season, highlighted by big wins over UCLA and Texas in the non-conference. However, some puzzling blowouts at the hands of fellow bubble teams Penn St and Mizzou forces everyone to pause and wonder who exactly is Illinois? Brad Underwood clearly is wondering the same thing and actually skipped their halftime last week altogether in an attempt to get his teams attention. Some consistency down the stretch should get the Illini in the field, but with the difficulty that the Big Ten presents it’s a bit too early to grant them lock status just yet. This week they need to take care of Minnesota at home before they welcome in Rutgers in what is a huge Q1 opportunity for both teams on Saturday. 

Rutgers: 16-7 (8-4) — Q1: (4-4) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (1-1) Q4: (7-0) SOS: (37) TW’s (4)

rutgersRutgers has been a menace ever since they got their full lineup back in order and if they just didn’t have that black stain in the loss to Temple on their resumé they would be the closest to lock status behind Purdue. What they do have that nobody else in the country does is a win over those Boilermakers in Mackey Arena, so as long as they handle their business at home they should be dancing come March. But, as we know, the Big Ten offers very few respites, and this week is one of the toughest imaginable as this group heads to Indiana followed by a trip to the aforementioned Illini. They do say defense travels and the Scarlet Knights have proven that already winning in Mackey, but they would have to feel ecstatic to even pull off one of these this week. The good news, an 0-2 week won’t sink the ship, and more opportunities await. 

Indiana: 16-7 (7-5) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (18) TW’s (6)

iuTrayce Jackson-Davis is the story for the Hoosiers as his increased level of play has turned this ship around. In the middle of January this team was 10-6 and mired by injuries. Since then TJD has put the team on his shoulders and carried them to a 6-1 record while averaging 24.2 ppg and 14.5 rpg. He has looked like an All-American and is right behind Zach Edey in the CPOY race and a certain 1st team All-Big Ten guy. All of that culminated in them getting the signature win they’ve been after as they beat #1 Purdue and put themselves in great position to be comfortably in come Selection Sunday. It is more of a conversation about what seed they’ll be now as they fall somewhere in the 5-6 range. However, they can’t relax in the Big Ten as 6 of their final 8 are Q1 games. An absolute gauntlet. 2-6 down the stretch and it’s a much different tune.  

Iowa: 15-8 (7-5) — Q1: (7-5) Q2: (3-2) Q3: (0-0) Q4: (5-1) SOS: (15) TW’s (7)

iowa Iowa has quietly racked up 7 Q1 wins now after a home win over Illinois and is only behind Purdue in the Big Ten in that category, and only behind Kansas and Texas nationally. The home loss to 352nd ranked E. Illinois is the one thing keeping them down in the 5-6 range seed wise, but the wins are starting to rack up in a way that can’t be ignored. They have a trip to Purdue up next and 5 of their final 8 are on the road, but if they can go 4-4 down the stretch they will be comfortably in. Lose any more than that and things will start to get dicey I imagine, but that pile of Q1 wins is really going to be the shining star. It is also worth noting the bad loss was without star Kris Murray, so I don’t see another loss like that happening. 

Maryland: 16-7 (7-5) — Q1: (3-7) Q2: (4-0) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: (31) TW’s (4)

marylandMaryland joins Purdue as the only Big Ten teams without a loss outside of Q1, so the resumé is clean as of today. For them it is about racking up a few more big time wins down the stretch, and this week they get a big opportunity as they head to East Lansing. That is followed up by a home tilt with Penn St before the biggest opportunity of the season comes to town in Purdue. That will be the game that I have circled for them, win that game at home after beating Penn St as well and the Terrapins are well on their way. Especially since after that game they get Nebraska/Minnesota back-to-back. Of course things rarely go as planned, but a loss to Sparty isn’t devastating so long as they just take my advice and beat Purdue. Easy enough right?

Teetering: 

Michigan St:  14-9 (6-6) — Q1: (4-7) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (4-0) SOS: (6) TW’s (4)

spartyA few weeks ago nobody would have thought Sparty would be in danger of falling out of the field but this last 7 game stretch has seen them go 2-5 in a gauntlet of a schedule. Positive momentum is not how I would describe this situation for Tom Izzo and company, but we all know February is when Izzo led teams always start hitting their stride. I would expect this group to bounce back this week as they get a home game against Maryland and then travel to Ohio St who is talented but absolutely free-falling right now. A 2-0 week and Michigan St will add at least 1 Q1 dub with the Maryland win likely a Q2. That would sure make everyone in East Lansing a bit more at ease as they head into the final stretch. 

Northwestern: 16-7 (7-5) — Q1: (4-4) Q2: (2-3) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: (61) TW’s (5)

northwesternNorthwestern is a confusing bunch, and after getting blown out at home by Michigan they just went on the road and beat Wisconsin. No idea how good the Cats are, but with 4 Q1 wins now they are still on the right side of the bubble. They also are headed into a stretch of 6 out of 8 games being Q1 opportunities so they have a chance to play themselves in or out depending on how it goes. If they can just take care of business at home then they’re likely in, but that also means beating Purdue, IU and Iowa…tall task. Maybe they can pick off Ohio St on the road, but there is a world I see them going 2-6 to finish the season and being in big jeopardy on Selection Sunday. The weak NC SOS could really hurt them, so finding a way to win 1 or more of those Q1 home games is vital. This week it’s @ Ohio St and then Purdue walks in. Big time week. 

Wisconsin: 13-9 (5-7) — Q1: (4-6) Q2: (3-3) Q3: (1-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (6) TW’s (4)

wisconsinJust when I thought the Badgers were going to right the ship they lose at home to Northwestern. They are now 2-7 over the last 9 games and it can no longer be written off to the Tyler Wahl injury, they may just stink? They went 0-3 without him, but he’s been back for 6 games now and you simply can’t lose at home to NW and still think you’re a good team (no offense to them of course). Still, thanks to a strong start to the season that includes wins away from home over Marquette and USC, the Badgers have a resumé that keeps them in consideration. Just like with every Big Ten team they have opportunity after opportunity to stack up some quality wins, and this week is no exception as they head to Penn St and then Nebraska. Two winnable games and I would argue you absolutely can’t go 0-2. Split those 2 and you’re still alive, and that is what it’s all about for these bubble teams in February. 

Penn St: 14-9 (5-7) — Q1: (2-6) Q2: (3-3) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (37) TW’s (3)

PennstPenn St is on the outside looking in, especially after losing to Nebraska, even if it was on the road. The good news for the Nittany Lions is they have 4 home games left against Wisconsin/Illinois/Rutgers/Maryland plus a trip to Minnesota which sets them up nicely to go 5-3 down the stretch. Do that and I think they find themselves on the right side of the bubble discussions. Anything worse than that and Selection Sunday is going to be a nail-biter. They have some good wins, including on the road against Illinois and home wins over IU and Iowa, it’s just losses like this last one to Nebraska that is keeping them from feeling safe. This week they get Wisconsin at home before going to Maryland, so a 1-1 week keeps them on target. Go 0-2 though and it might be all she wrote for this group, so Wednesday really is nut up or shut up time.  


–Big 12–

Locks:

kansastexas  

On the Right Track:

TCU: 18-5 (6-4) — Q1: (5-4) Q2: (3-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (30) TW’s (6)

kstate

If the Wildcats could have just held serve at home against Texas this past weekend they would be a lock, but now losses in 3 of the last 4 puts a tiny haze of doubt over this group. I still think they are too good to really enter a free-fall, but nevertheless I am giving them another week to play themselves off of this bubble watch. A home tilt with TCU offers a perfect bounce back chance and then a road venture to desperate Texas Tech again offers a winnable but difficult matchup. There are no nights off in the Big 12, we all know that, but at some point you have to take care of business and these are 2 of the “easier” games they will have. 2-0 this week and we’ll be done writing about K-State, but another loss will keep that shred of doubt lingering. Either way, I’m still assuming they’ll get in and they sit in the 3-4 seed range right now, but you know how that can go. 

TCU: 17-6 (6-4) — Q1: (5-4) Q2: (4-0) Q3: (0-0) Q4: (8-1) SOS: (27) TW’s (6)

tcuThe wild thing about the Big 12 is almost every night is a Q1 game, and TCU is likely to finish the season playing 16 Q1 games total and that’s average compared to other Big 12 teams. Absolute madness. The Frogs are mired by injuries right now as 2 of their starters Mike Miles and Eddie Lampkin have missed time over their last 4 games, so going 2-2 over that stretch is impressive. However, this week is brutal as they head to K-State and then welcome white hot Baylor, so if they’re not healthy an 0-2 week is on the table. I don’t think that would really put them near the true cut line by any means, but it would certainly start to mount some pressure. And don’t worry, the week after is just a trip to Iowa St where the Cyclones are undefeated this season. Again, no nights off. Get the Frogs healthy and they are a dangerous team, but if those guys continue to miss time the slide could continue. Again, like with K-State I expect this group to get in, it’s just so tough in the Big 12 to feel safe, especially with that loss to Northwestern St lingering out there..

Baylor: 17-6 (6-4) — Q1: (7-6) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (0-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: (5) TW’s (5)

baylorBaylor is one of the hottest teams in the Country right now and just welcomed back Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua who promptly had 8 and 4 in limited minutes. Once he’s fully back and healthy he could play starters minutes at the 5 and provides a better scoring threat than they’ve had there all season. And that’s for an offense that was already top-10 in the Country. The Bears are also right on the fringe of putting into lock territory, and if they continue to roll like they have over the last 8 games it won’t be long before we aren’t discussing them anymore. If 7-1 becomes 9-1 in their last 10 lock em up. This week they get Oklahoma at home and then head to TCU in a massive matchup next Saturday. It’s more of a when not if for Baylor, who in almost all scenarios will hear their name called on Selection Sunday, but there’s still that outside chance..

Iowa St: 16-6 (7-3) — Q1: (7-6) Q2: (2-0) Q3: (1-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (8) TW’s (6)

iowastThe Cyclones are undefeated at home and flexed their muscle again this weekend with a beatdown over Kansas. It’s really hard to separate this group of 4 teams in the Big 12 behind Texas and Kansas, and in all likelihood they are all going to be in the field come March, but as I’ve discussed with the others the Big 12 is so difficult any of these teams could hit a slide that could bury a resumé. Iowa St has it a little bit easier with only 6 of the final 8 being Q1 games, yeah you read that right, but a 2-6 finish could put them more in the bubble discussion. I still think it would be good enough to be in, so I’m pretty confident in the Cyclones, but better to be safe for 1 more week. They head to Morgantown and then get Oklahoma at home, so a 1-1 week really is just holding serve and they don’t lose at home so I can’t see them going 0-2. Also I’m a bad gambler so I may have just spoken this into existence, sorry Cyclone fans. 

Teetering:

W. Virginia: 14-9 (3-7) — Q1: (5-9) Q2: (2-0) Q3: (1-0) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (7) TW’s (3)

wvuBob Huggins is starting to round this group into form as they’ve now gone 4-2 over their last 6. They have 4 home games left on the docket, go 4-0 in those games and they should be in the field. Drop even 1 of those and now you’re talking 6-12 in league play and 17-14 overall. It will start to get dicey at that point. So, with that being said Wednesday against Iowa St is as close to a must win game as there is. The difficult thing with these Big 12 bubble teams is imagining what they would do with a weaker schedule, say in the Mountain West. Obviously the records are ugly, but you’re playing almost 20 Q1 games to say a Boise State’s 5 or so. I am not sure in recent years if we’ve seen a Conference so loaded top to bottom, so just how these Big 12 teams with lopsided Conference records are seeded will be interesting. I think 3-5 down the stretch could still get them in, but 4-4 and you punch the ticket in my mind. 

Oklahoma St: 14-9 (5-5) — Q1: (4-7) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS: (9) TW’s (3)

okstateThe Pokes just had a massive week and played themselves onto the right side of the bubble in my opinion with huge wins @ Oklahoma and then over TCU at home. All of these Big 12 blurbs are likely sounding nauseatingly similar though as once again the schedule down the stretch is brutal, but if they just hold serve at home I think the Cowboys will be dancing comfortably. Now, that does mean beating Kansas, Kansas St and Baylor…sounds much easier to just say hold serve at home. There is a world where I genuinely see Oklahoma St beating Texas Tech at home this week and then losing 7 straight games. I’m not saying I’m predicting that, but I wouldn’t be shocked. They have to at least go 2-6 to even be in the conversation, but 1-7 and they’re out of it. It starts Wednesday with Tech at home, but the trip to Iowa St Saturday could be the beginning of the end. 

Oklahoma: 12-11 (2-8) — Q1: (4-8) Q2: (2-3) Q3: (0-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS: (2) TW’s (2)

oklahomaThe Sooners have felt like a tournament quality team at times this season, no more than 2 Saturdays ago when they busted up Alabama. However, they just have racked up too many losses at this stage and certainly find themselves on the outside looking in. The good news for them is there is opportunity every night to pick up Q1 wins, so I’m setting their number at 5 wins down the stretch to still be in consideration. If they go 4-4, they will need to do some work in the Conference tourney to feel safe. Again though it’s hard not to wonder what they would look like in one of these weaker conferences, I mean they beat Bama by 24…The 3 Q2 losses though I think are just too much to overcome right now, but again the opportunities are out there. It starts this week with a trip to Baylor and then Kansas comes to town. It’s nut up or shut up time in Norman right now. 


–Big East–

Locks:

marquettexavier 

On the Right Track:

Uconn: 18-6 (7-6) — Q1: (4-5) Q2: (3-0) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS: (32) TW’s (4)

uconnAfter starting the season 14-0, racking up blowout wins over Alabama and Iowa St along the way, the Huskies looked like one of the best teams in the Country. However, 4-6 over the last 10 now makes them one of the more confusing teams to gauge in the Country. Are they just showing their true colors? Or maybe just got relaxed after such a hot start? We’re going to find out, but for now they continue to battle for positioning and sit on the 5 line heading into this week. A home game against red hot Marquette gives this team an opportunity to prove they are who we once thought they were, but another Q1 loss could start to test the resumé. Especially considering this is 1 of only 3 remaining Q1 games. It is hard to imagine a world Uconn doesn’t make it, but maybe I’m stuck in the past. The Uconn we’ve seen over the last 10 games could continue to free-fall and an 0-2 week isn’t out of the question as they travel to Creighton as well. Just beat Marquette and put my mind at ease would ya please? 

Teetering:

Creighton: 15-8 (9-3) — Q1: (2-5) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (6-1) Q4: (3-0) SOS: (23) TW’s (2)

creightonIt is looking better by the day for Creighton and my eyeballs tell me Creighton is one of the better teams in the Country, but the fact remains that they only have 2 Q1 wins so you absolutely can’t feel comfortable right now if you’re the Blue Jays. It’s been essentially a 3 chapter season for this team, starting 6-0 then losing 6 straight to now have gone 9-2 over their last 11 to get the train back on the tracks. I would say they’re entering a 4th chapter now, as they have 5/8 games on the road to finish things out and 5 total Q1 games left. A pretty difficult stretch, but one where they absolutely need to capitalize and pick up some big time wins. It starts this week with a trip to Seton Hall and then Uconn coming in, so going 1-1 is a great start to really wrapping up this rebound story from that 6-6 team. 0-2 though and things are dicey again. 

Providence: 17-6 (9-3) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS: (52) TW’s (2)

providenceProvidence is another team that I think is better than their resumé shows but ultimately that is what they’ll be judged on so it’s time to start capitalizing. A close loss last week in OT @ Xavier was so close to being the exact win they needed, but for now they cling to home wins over Marquette and Uconn. The non-conference was weak and they lost the 3 decently difficult games they played, so it’s all about the Big East resumé at this point. This seems like a must go 2-0 week as they host Georgetown and then head to St. John’s. If you are who you say you are then you win these two games, as you should not be playing with any sense of comfort. The real opportunities come later on, but for now it’s just about holding serve.  

Seton Hall: 15-9 (8-5) — Q1: (3-5) Q2: (2-3) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (4-0) SOS: (19) TW’s (3)

setonhallThe Pirates have scratched and clawed their way back into the discussion after starting the season 8-8 and now find themselves just on the outside looking in. The 7-1 stretch over the last 8 hasn’t exactly been a murderers row but the home win over Uconn showed the improvements they’ve made. That loss to Siena is brutal right now, but it can be overcome as they now have 5 Q1 opportunities awaiting them. They have a shot to play themselves into the field, and that’s all you can really hope for after starting the season so woefully. 7 games left, 4 at home, so the recipe is take care of those and go 4-3 and I think they will have a legitimate case to be in. 5-2 leaves no doubts. It all starts this week with Creighton coming to town, so as we say, it’s nut up or shut up time for Seton Hall. 


–Pac-12–

Locks:

arizona ucla

On the Right Track: N/A

Teetering: 

USC: 17-6 (9-3) — Q1: (3-3) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (4-0) Q4: (6-1) SOS (58) TW’s (2)

uscFor the Trojans it’s all about quality wins, especially with the Q4 loss to Florida Gulf Coast out there. Right now they’re clinging on to home wins over Auburn and UCLA, and that’s really it. That has a lot to do with how bad the Pac-12 has been this year, but it is what it is and they simply can’t afford to lose games at this point. They get a road test against fellow bubble team Oregon and then it’s back to Q3/4 games for a while. I’m not saying it’s a must-win over Oregon but it would definitely make things more comfortable and get them on the right track (category and all). The last 4 are all opportunities to build a case for the committee, but the next 4 has to be 3-1 worst case. Another team that I think is talented enough to be dancing but just needs to execute and take advantage of the few opportunities it has left. 

Oregon:  14-10 (8-5) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (4-2) Q3: (3-2) Q4: (4-0) SOS (13) TW’s (2)

oregon

It’s been a while since we’ve seen Dana Altman and this Oregon program down as bad as they have been over the past 2 seasons. However, they are climbing back into the bubble discussions and despite an ugly record I think the resumé could stack up if they get some much needed wins this week. They were ravaged by injuries in the middle part of the season but are as healthy as they’ve been all season and just picked up a huge win @ Arizona St. USC and UCLA both come to Eugene this week and if they’re sitting at 16-10 with those 2 wins added to the resumé I think they get themselves on the right side of the bubble. It’s hard to believe after they were just 9-8 a few weeks ago but never count out a Dana Altman team, and the talent is there now that it’s healthy. Biggest week of the season upcoming for the Ducks. 

Arizona St: 16-8 (7-6) — Q1: (3-2) Q2: (2-5) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (6-1) SOS (71) TW’s (1)

azstateWhat a fall from grace for the Sun Devils as they’ve gone just 1-5 over their last 6 taking them from a nice looking 15-3 to the wrong side of the bubble in no time. They sit now clinging tight to a neutral site win over Creighton and a road win over Oregon as their best wins, so they have little to no room for error as we head down the stretch. The next 4 are simply must win and frankly won’t add much to the resumé but they end the season with 3 roadies against Arizona/UCLA/USC. Go 5-2 the rest of the way and they could find themselves back on the right side. I just don’t have much confidence they won’t slip up against one of these average teams they have upcoming, much less to expect them to win one of those tough road games. They deserve to still be in the conversation but I don’t think it will last much longer. 

Utah: 16-9 (9-5) — Q1: (1-5) Q2: (2-3) Q3: (3-1) Q4: (10-0) SOS (77) TW’s (1)

utahSome may say including Utah in this bubble conversation is a stretch, but there’s a part of my optimistic brain that sees a path forward for the Utes despite the not so great resumé. Why? Well because it is without a truly ugly loss and there are ample opportunities to pick up big wins as they close out the season. Home games against UCLA and USC provide 2 big time chances and road games against Arizona and a reeling Arizona St team are opportunities as well. Sure they could go 0-4 and no longer be part of this discussion, but what if they go 3-1 only losing at Arizona. They already have a win at home against the Wildcats, add USC and UCLA to that mix and suddenly the resumé looks legit. It’s not probable but it’s also not improbable. First things first take care of Colorado at home, don’t make me look stupid please. 


–SEC–

Locks:

bama  vols

On the Right Track:

Missouri: 17-6 (5-5) — Q1: (3-6) Q2: (4-0) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (7-0) SOS (41) TW’s (3)

mizzouMizzou is about as consistently inconsistent as you can get, as they can seemingly beat anybody at home but man when they go out of town all bets are off. Bama and Kansas did go into Columbia and win, but wins over Iowa St, Kentucky and Arkansas have given the Tigers enough of a resumé to feel comfortable (plus that non-con W over Illinois to sweeten the pot). If the tournament started today they’re in for sure, and I would promptly be picking them to lose in the 1st round, however they still have some time and opportunities to prove me wrong. This week starts easy with a must win home game against S. Carolina but then they head off to Knoxville in a game that could get ugly…As bad as I talk about Missouri though they sit in this category for a reason, they don’t lose to teams they shouldn’t, and with 0 losses outside of Q1 and 3 Q1 wins to boot they have a worthy resumé. 

Teetering:

Auburn: 17-6 (7-3) — Q1: (1-4) Q2: (6-2) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS (47) TW’s (2)

auburnAuburn is still somewhat comfortably on the right side of the bubble but they’ve lost 3 of 4 and are hanging on to only 1 Q1 win right now. This week offers no reprieve for the Tigers as they head to fellow bubble team Texas A&M and then welcome Alabama into town. 1 of those 2 games really need to be a W or else they start entering first 4 in Dayton territory. Beat Alabama at home though and you can take a deep breath for at least another week but Auburn is walking on thin ice right now. Having 0 bad losses is really a saving grace, so continuing to take care of business against bad teams and just picking off maybe 2 more Q1 wins should get them in. The good news for them is they get Tennessee at home as well later on so just win your home games (and @ Vandy) and you’re in. Easy peasy. 

Kentucky: 16-7 (7-3) — Q1: (1-6) Q2: (6-0) Q3: (3-0) Q4: (6-1) SOS (48) TW’s (1)

kentuckyClearly this Kentucky team is much better than its earlier iterations, especially the one that lost at home to S. Carolina. Ever since that game though they are 6-1 with wins over Tennessee, A&M and Florida. What they need to do to feel secure is rack up a few more Q1 wins, 1 ain’t gonna get it done come selection Sunday. They have 4-5 opportunities to do so down the stretch and just need to continue to win the games they should. This week they get Arkansas at Rupp and then head to Georgia. No time for slip ups at this stage of the season so a 2-0 week is imperative to not slide to the wrong side of the bubble. What I do know is if they continue to play this well nobody is going to want to see the Wildcats in that 7-10 range in March. With as wide open as the field is this year Calipari throwing it back to 2014 when he took 8 seed UK to the Natty is not out of the realm of possibilities. Man I can’t wait for March. 

Arkansas: 16-7 (5-5) — Q1: (1-5) Q2: (4-1) Q3: (6-1) Q4: (5-0) SOS (54) TW’s (2)

arkansasThe Hogs are in the field in the opinion of many of the so-called “experts”, I happen to disagree at this stage. The SOS is not good, only 1 Q1 win and 2 losses outside of Q1 doesn’t quite make the cut for me, but they’re certainly close. 7 of their last 8 are all Q1/2 games, so we’re going to find out down the stretch who they really are, but if they don’t add at least 1 or 2 more Q1 wins I’m not sure they’ll get in. That’s ultimately what it comes down to, and while the NET and Kenpom like the Hogs, it is more about building a resumé than looking pretty to the computers. The committee has said they don’t factor in rankings when seeding the field, Arkansas may just put that to the test this year. They can also make it easy by winning some big time games, starting this week with a trip to UK and then Mississippi St at home. 

Mississippi St: 15-8 (3-7) — Q1: (2-5) Q2: (3-3) Q3: (2-0) Q4: (8-0) SOS (40) TW’s (3)

missstWe’re really splitting hairs now as we get to these mid-level SEC teams who are fighting for the last spots but I have the Bulldogs in the field right now playing in Dayton. The quality wins is where they beat out Arkansas for me, most notably a neutral site win over Marquette and then these last 2 home wins over TCU and Mizzou. They had a tough stretch earlier in the season in which they went 1-8 and most people wrote em off, but I do think the resumé overall still gives them a fighting chance to hear their name called on Selection Sunday. What you ideally do is win your home games, which would give them wins over Kentucky and A&M to add to the pile of wins. They have a legitimate shot to go 6-2 down the stretch and if they do that I think they’re in comfortably. 5-3 would still be good enough to be in the conversation in my mind so things are looking up in Starkville, just have to take care of business. 

Texas A&M: 16-7 (8-2) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (2-1) Q3: (4-1) Q4: (8-1) SOS (77) TW’s (2)

a&mListen there’s no denying that once again Buzz Williams has his team playing really good basketball down the stretch. However, 2 things can be true at once and the losses early in the season to Wofford and Murray St (both 200+ ranked teams) are a major black stain on the resumé. Once again A&M will be challenging the committee to leave out a clearly talented team due to early season struggles, but I think they would have to again if the season ended today. Luckily for the Aggies it just so happens the season doesn’t end today, and there’s still ample time to build a solid enough Q1/Q2 record that those losses can’t keep them out. All 8 of their remaining games will fall into that category it appears, so the opportunities are there to rack up important wins, and they need several. It starts this week with a home tilt against Auburn. Nut up or shut up time in College Station.

Florida: 13-10 (6-4) — Q1: (2-8) Q2: (1-2) Q3: (6-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS (14) TW’s (3)

floridaListen, the record for Florida is ugly but similar to Oklahoma the SOS is so difficult there still remains a pathway for Florida to make it. It’s just time to start winning some of these Q1 games, and they did that last week by knocking off Tennessee at home. That got them back in the conversation, and while they are as fringe of a bubble team as it gets on this list, the opportunities are there and with the lighter schedule to finish they could finish 12-6 in the SEC. That will be hard to ignore, especially if they can knock off Kentucky at home. It’s hard to imagine a team that is 2-10 in Q1 games making it though, so I would understand a scoff at seeing Florida on this list, but who knows maybe they go to Bama or Arkansas and win? Yeah I laughed at that too, but still, the path is there, however difficult it may seem. 


–Mountain West–

Locks: N/A

On the Right Track:

San Diego St: 17-5 (6-4) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (5-1) Q3: (9-0) Q4: (1-0) SOS (72) TW’s (3)

sdsuThe Mountain West is a two-tier league, with 5 teams having legitimate cases for at-large bids and 6 teams that are pretty bad. That makes it tough to pick up quality wins for the Aztecs, as the only real top tier wins come on the road. They had been hanging their hat on a non-conference win over Ohio St, but as you noticed the Buckeye’s are no longer even in the bubble conversation after free-falling these last few weeks so every win is getting more important for this group. The last game was a drubbing of fellow contender Boise St, which helped get them in this category. However, with only 3 Q1 opportunities left, all on the road, there can’t be any slip ups. Stealing one of the roadies could help lock it up for em, and it starts this week as they head to Utah St. 

Teetering:

Nevada: 18-6 (8-3) — Q1: (2-4) Q2: (6-2) Q3: (5-0) Q4: (4-0) SOS (74) TW’s (3)

nevada

The Wolfpack have done enough to be in the field as of today, but their schedule sets them up to be leap frogged by several major conference teams down the stretch who simply have way more opportunities. 5 of Nevada’s final 7 are Q3/4 games, with 2 road games at New Mexico and Utah St being their only shots to improve the resumé. Not an ideal scenario, but if they can somehow steal one of those and finish 6-1 I think they have a good shot at making it, 5-2 though they are going to probably be in that First 4 conversation and maybe headed to the NIT depending on how the MWC tourney goes. It’s tough sledding in mid-major conferences trying to get an at-large bid, but the path is certainly still there for this group. Next up is @ New Mexico in a gigantic matchup for both teams. 

New Mexico: 19-4 (6-4) — Q1: (3-2) Q2: (2-0) Q3: (7-2) Q4: (6-0) SOS (126) TW’s (3)

unm New Mexico is leading both the categories of best wins this conference has to offer and also maybe the worst losses. The road win over Saint Mary’s is aging like a fine wine, and combined with a road win over San Diego St and a home win over Boise St you get a nice 3-2 Q1 record. What hurts is those 2 Q3 losses that stick out like a sore thumb. The good news for the Lobos is they get Nevada and San Diego St at home still, plus a couple road games that could land as Q2 wins. Add 4 more Q1/Q2 wins to the resumé and don’t lose any additional games you shouldn’t and New Mexico should find their way in. Of any of the MW teams the Lobos have the most to gain in front of them, so they have to feel good about both where they are and where they could be if they handle their business. 

Boise St: 18-6 (8-3) — Q1: (1-3) Q2: (6-1) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (5-1) SOS (81) TW’s (1)

boise

Boise finds themselves on the outside looking in, despite a 7-4 Q1/2 record they have a couple of bad losses and really only 1 win against tournament teams in Nevada. The Broncos do have a couple more opportunities though to get a few more good wins to try and outweigh those bad losses as they host both New Mexico and San Diego St. Win both of those and they may have a better case to make come Selection Sunday. I don’t think all 5 MWC teams get in, especially as they beat each other up down the stretch, so honestly going 6-1 to close out the season may be what it takes for the Broncos to get in. A great way to start is to not lose to Colorado St or Wyoming this week because another bad loss may put a fork in this team’s chances to go dancing. 

Utah St: 18-5 (8-3) — Q1: (0-3) Q2: (6-0) Q3: (9-0) Q4: (3-2) SOS (102) TW’s (1) 

utahstThe Aggies are about as far out of it as you can be and still make it on the bubble watch but they are 18-5 and are 6-0 in Q2 games so I think they’re talented enough to make a run. Still I think they may have to run the table to make the dance, and frankly they have a damn good shot at doing so. Of the 7 remaining games 4 are at home and the 3 on the road are against the bottom half of the Conference. Win your home games, especially against San Diego St, Nevada and Boise St and all of a sudden you’re 25-5 and can’t be ignored. The one loss they could maybe withstand is @ UNLV, but anything worse than 6-1 to close it out and I don’t think they make the in consideration board. Starts on Wednesday as the Aztecs come to Logan, Utah. All eyes on the Mountain West my friends. 


–American–

Locks:

houston

On the Right Track: N/A

Teetering: 

Memphis: 17-6 (7-3) — Q1: (2-2) Q2: (4-3) Q3: (5-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS (69) TW’s (1)

memphisIt’s beginning to be desperation time for Memphis, as they now sit on the wrong side of the bubble for the 1st time in a long while after a home loss to Tulane. They have home games against Cincy and UCF left and still have a home/home with Houston to rack up some wins. I think if they go 3-1 in those games and take care of the rest as well they will get themselves back on the right side. That would put them at 24-7 with 3 Q1 wins, which should be enough. Anything less than that and it’s going to be a nervy Selection Sunday if they don’t win the conference tourney. March 5th at home against Houston could be the season on the line for the Tigers, but they have to hold serve against the rest of the Conference to set themselves up for that moment. No more losses to the likes of Tulane. 

–WCC–

Locks: N/A

On the Right Track:

Gonzaga: 18-5 (8-2) — Q1: (3-4) Q2: (5-0) Q3: (4-1) Q4: (6-0) SOS (57) TW’s (4)

zagsIt’s hard to imagine a world where the Zags don’t get in at this point but it was also hard to imagine Gonzaga losing at home to Loyola Marymount, so we’re gonna hold off maybe 1 more week. This is the first time since 2016 that Gonzaga has lost multiple games in the WCC, and are in line to lose the regular season title outright for the first time since 2012. However, the non-conference slate was an absolute gauntlet so they gave themselves a few huge wins over Alabama, Xavier, Michigan St and Kentucky to really make it hard to keep them out. It was more me wanting to write about Gonzaga that I kept them out of Lock territory, but a 2-0 week this week should go ahead and do it. With 5 of 7 at home to close things out, I could see the Zags winning out and getting their revenge on both Loyola and Saint Mary’s. 

Saint Mary’s: 20-4 (10-0) — Q1: (2-1) Q2: (5-1) Q3: (9-2) Q4: (4-0) SOS (123) TW’s (2)  

smcThe Gaels are getting a ton of love Nationally, especially now that they knocked off mighty Gonzaga, but this resumé still has holes in it with only 2 Q1 wins and those nasty Q3 losses. I expect them to get in, but a really tricky game is upcoming on the road against Loyola Marymount who has already beaten Gonzaga this year. Coming off that huge win the Gaels may find themselves in some trouble. In actuality, they probably go 5-1 to close out the season, and who knows maybe they take out the Zags on the road too and finish undefeated in WCC play. I doubt it, but even 5-1 should be plenty to get themselves in and if they take out Loyola and Portland this week they’ll likely be locked into the field. Fun year for Randy Bennett and co. 

CBB Contender Series 6.0

Welcome to the place where we go beyond traditional ranking systems. Sure, you can look at the AP top-25 or the NCAA’s NET rankings or simply Kenpom’s top-10. We’re diving deeper, acknowledging that the human eye can be misleading, and that data is the best way to approach predicting the madness come March. Don’t just take my word here for it, take a look here where I break down exactly what the data is telling me. I will be defining teams as “vulnerable” or “impenetrable” or simply “flyers”, exactly what backs up my logic for these can also found in the first article. For now, a synopsis: Vulnerable teams are the statistical archetype of a team that is likely to be upset the first weekend. Impenetrable teams are the antithesis of that, fitting the archetype of teams who almost never miss the Sweet 16. Finally the flyers, teams that don’t fit those narrow barometers but find themselves in or around the top-10. So, every week we’ll take a look at Kenpom’s 10 most efficient teams and define them, look at their week (or season if they’re new) and assess where they truly stand in the Contender vs Pretender debate. To see my initial breakdown of these teams refer to v-1, the following will be an update on the week each team had if they were also in the top-10 last week. *—–* indicates change in archetype.

  1. Houston (21-2) Off (8) Def (6) – IMPENETRABLE
    • Remaining at the top spot once again the Cougars survived 2 scares this week as they had to come from behind in the final 10 minutes of each win over Cincy and Wichita St. It seems this group has a switch they can flip as they dig in, get stops and are able to put teams away at the end. It’s a bit of a worrying trend as I’m sure Kelvin Sampson is imploring his guys to give that effort for the full 40 minutes, but when you continue to beat up on weaker competition over and over you can see how they have put it on cruise control. Right now, they need every win in their path as the fight for a 1 seed is tight and the weakness of the American Conference is making it tough to build a resume. At the end of the day, I still think Houston at its best is the best team in the Country, but it’s also true that we haven’t had this weak of a field at the top in a long while.  
  2. Tennessee (18-4) Off (42) Def (1) – FLYER
    • The Vols had a huge home win over Texas this week in which they put up 82 points and started to look like their well-documented offensive issues were in the past. But, as the data would have suggested, they flopped at Florida being held to 54 points and losing by 13. The offense cannot be ignored at this point, and if they happen to run into a good defensive team in March that can make it difficult for them to score they are going to be in trouble. So, they remain in the “Flyer” category and are on the brink of dipping into Vulnerable. They just don’t have a go-to guy, whether it be a guard or a big man inside, when things get bogged down they get lost. This is really nothing new for the Vols, as they have dipped out the first weekend with the 85th ranked offense and 35th ranked offense the last 2 seasons. Rinse and repeat it appears.
  3. Purdue (22-1) Off (2) Def (18) – FLYER
    • Two dominant wins at home over Michigan St and Penn St helped to cement Purdue as the clear #1 overall seed in the tournament as it stands today. Zach Edey is the unquestioned POY in the Country and the ancillary players are starting to knock down perimeter shots as well. It will have to be a team like Houston who has big physical guys up and down the roster to slow down the Boilers, similar to Rutgers who are the only group to knock them off. You have to double Edey and be disciplined enough to rotate to the shooters consistently. Furthermore, you have to be able to rebound and keep them off the glass as they rank 3rd in OReb %. There’s your case for the difficulty of slowing them down, but there’s also the slight weakness on defense keeping them from being in the Impenetrable category. Either way, Purdue looks like the favorite right there with Houston.  
  4. Alabama (18-2) Off (18) Def (5) – *FLYER*
    • I’m not sure any team in the Country has had more of a roller coaster week than this Alabama team just had. They were absolutely blasted by Oklahoma by 24 points, only to come out and beat Vandy by 57. Clearly Nate Oates was able to get his young team’s attention, as they locked in defensively only giving up 44 points in game 2 after giving up 93 to Oklahoma. That will be the difference for the Tide, as so much of their ability on offense relies on getting out in transition off of turnovers and rebounds. They have to get stops and there’s no excuse for why they can’t given their height and athleticism. Offensively it’s all about turnovers and shot selection, as these guards need to take care of the ball better…they rank 247th in TO%, which is undoubtedly a focus for Oates. Either way, they’re a 1 seed right now and the favorite in the SEC.
  5. UCLA (18-4) Off (26) Def (3) – FLYER
    • Only 1 game this week for the Bruins but they won comfortably, but the questions on the offensive end are starting to intensify. They have gone from 15th two weeks ago to now 26th. They’re starting to look more like the patented Mick Cronin teams we are used to though, cringy on offense but lockdown on D. I had previously written off the offensive struggles to missing Amari Bailey, but he has been back the last 2 games and it hasn’t looked much improved. Against Washington they shot 6-21 from 3 and had 18 turnovers, which doesn’t align with who they were early in the season. There really aren’t too many tests in the Pac-12 that lie in wait, so the rematch with Arizona in March is probably the next time they won’t be clear favorites.
  6. Uconn (17-6) Off (9) Def (19) – *FLYER*
    • I have been waiting for weeks now to get that Impenetrable tag off this Uconn group and we finally have it as the defensive number has fallen from top-5 to 19. It has been obvious for a while now that the Huskies just aren’t playing like they were early in the season, especially on defense. Giving up 76 to DePaul, in a win, was enough to tip them into the Flyer category. 10 games ago I said this… They’re experienced and can be dominant on both ends of the floor as their rankings suggest. Being top-6 in both categories is extremely rare and may not hold up, but they look like a sure-fire bet to make a run at this stage. Easily a 1 seed at this point, everything is in front of the Huskies as the Big East looks to run through them and they are the betting favorite to win the whole thing. What could go wrong? I laughed out loud reading that…4-6 since that paragraph, which is the beauty of this series, completely reactionary but as you compare over time you perfectly encapsulate some of the roller coaster rides these teams go through. 10 games from now we could be anywhere with this group.
  7. Saint Mary’s (19-4) Off (45) Def (4) – *FLYER*
    • The Gaels survived a big scare at BYU and then took care of business against San Francisco to set up the massive home matchup against Gonzaga. This is an opportunity for St. Mary’s to legitimize themselves as they rank high on many ranking systems, including Kenpom as you see but they don’t have many good wins. They are essentially Tennessee, as they struggle mightily at times on the offensive end but are dominant defensively. Essentially they are the antithesis of Gonzaga who wants to play fast and score 90, so it will be an interesting matchup. Gonzaga is not good defensively either so it could be a chance for these guys to get some clean looks and get cooking offensively, but you know the Zags are going to bring it. For me this is a huge prove it game for St. Mary’s, you have to beat Gonzaga at home for me to believe in you.
  8. Marquette (18-5) Off (1) Def (63) – VULNERABLE
    • Same story for Marquette as they continue to be the best offensive team in the Country and are weak on the other end. A huge matchup this week awaits as they travel to the aforementioned Uconn. Marquette is truly one of the most unheralded teams in the Country, as they are quietly the best team in the Big East. Xavier, Uconn and Creighton get a lot of love but Marquette is one of the few elite offensive teams. There is quite a bit of separation between them and 2nd place Purdue, so to say they are the most elite offense in the Country should not be controversial. However, as I’ve discussed many times before, unbalanced teams struggle in March, and right now Marquette is a team I would be picking to be upset in the first weekend.
  9. Kansas (18-4) Off (19) Def (16) – FLYER
    • Huge bounce back for Kansas after dropping 3 in a row as they went on the road to beat Kentucky and then got their revenge on Kansas St. Back on the right track but a murderer’s row of 6 straight Q1 games await, so we are going to find out just what these Jayhawks have in them. The lack of size was a huge concern, which I have written about extensively, but the last 2 wins they only gave up 4 and 9 offensive rebounds respectively. Holding Oscar Tshiebwe and UK to only 4 offensive rebounds is extremely impressive. That has to continue for Kansas, and it has to be a by committee thing, it has to become their identity. If they can do that then their ability to play 5 out and switch defensively actually puts them at a huge advantage. Will be interesting to watch this upcoming stretch.  
  10. Texas (18-4) Off (11) Def (30) – FLYER
    • The Longhorns bounced back after a tough road loss to Tennessee with a big win over a good Baylor team. It’s clear that this team has shifted identities a little bit since Chris Beard left the program as the defensive intensity is not what it was but offensively they do look improved. Marcus Carr and Timmy Allen are playing really free and making plays on offense, they just need to get back to their solid defensive ways if they really want to go on a run in March. I don’t have too much confidence in them after giving up 82 points to a mediocre Tennessee offense but they have a ton of talent and Sir’Jabari Rice is coming on strong of late. Back-to-back road games in Kansas could send them out of this top-10 though next week…but in the Big 12 ya just never know.

CBB Contender Series 5.0

Welcome to the place where we go beyond traditional ranking systems. Sure, you can look at the AP top-25 or the NCAA’s NET rankings or simply Kenpom’s top-10. We’re diving deeper, acknowledging that the human eye can be misleading, and that data is the best way to approach predicting the madness come March. Don’t just take my word here for it, take a look here where I break down exactly what the data is telling me. I will be defining teams as “vulnerable” or “impenetrable” or simply “flyers”, exactly what backs up my logic for these can also found in the first article. For now, a synopsis: Vulnerable teams are the statistical archetype of a team that is likely to be upset the first weekend. Impenetrable teams are the antithesis of that, fitting the archetype of teams who almost never miss the Sweet 16. Finally the flyers, teams that don’t fit those narrow barometers but find themselves in or around the top-10. So, every week we’ll take a look at Kenpom’s 10 most efficient teams and define them, look at their week (or season if they’re new) and assess where they truly stand in the Contender vs Pretender debate. To see my initial breakdown of these teams refer to v-1, the following will be an update on the week each team had if they were also in the top-10 last week. *—–* indicates change in archetype.

  1. Houston (19-2) Off (7) Def (3) – IMPENETRABLE
    • Houston finally looked vulnerable this past week with a loss at home to Temple, ugly. However, the data still tells us this team is the best in the Country and they bounced back with a road win over UCF who happens to be the 3rd best team in the American Conference. Sometimes the offense goes quiet for Houston, but what usually makes them able to score is their offensive rebounding. Temple was able to keep them off the glass and muck up the game. It’s a very difficult task to pull off but you have to control the glass against this team to have a chance, and you have to be a team a tough ass dudes because Houston is relentless. The road demolition of UCF to bounce back proved just how great they can be, and they show up in the biggest moments and come ready for a fight. Houston should be the odds-on favorite to win this thing this year, as the group behind them is rocky at best. It’s worth noting again, teams who are top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency entering the tournament are historically dominant…the data doesn’t lie.
  2. Tennessee (17-3) Off (40) Def (1) – FLYER
    • Tennessee has continued to beat up on the middle and bottom parts of the SEC, but when push has come to shove they’ve struggled against the better competition this year. It’s a weird conundrum for this group, as they’ve now gone back to Zakai Zeigler in the starting lineup and moved the big man Plavsic to the bench. Either way this team will defend at an elite level, they are just trying to figure out how to generate consistent offensive play as they’re teetering on entering the vulnerable territory due to the inefficiency on that end. There is still a lot of love for the Vols around the Country, but man am I getting worried about this group. Maybe it’s short sighted, but the data is screaming at us. Sure, against bad teams they are able to suffocate and dominate, but in the tournament to win 4 straight against elite teams, I’m not convinced yet. Maybe the recent lineup changes can make a difference. Tonight they welcome fellow top-10 team Texas with a chance to change my mind a little.
  3. UCLA (17-4) Off (20) Def (5) – *FLYER*
    • Back-to-back losses for the Bruins have dropped them from the Impenetrable category to Flyer territory as they have been shut down on the offensive end. Now, I had in weeks past been contributing this to missing Amari Bailey, but Bailey was back for the 2nd loss at USC so things are starting to get concerning on that end. Ultimately, I think they ran into the 2 best teams in the Pac-12, besides themselves, on the road and lost two dog fights, nothing to be overly concerned about. This is one of the most experienced teams in the Country, with several guys on the team who went on that Final 4 run a couple of years ago, and after a Sweet 16 loss last year they have to be keying in on that March run. UCLA in my mind is right behind Houston and Alabama as the best bets right now, and the data agrees.
  4. Alabama (18-2) Off (15) Def (4) – IMPENETRABLE
    • Bama is right there with UCLA as teams turning it on at the exact right time, as they are now rolling through the SEC and look like a true contender. Nate Oates finally has this team playing connected defensively and of course playing that fast wide open offense he is known for. Auburn and Tennessee are still down the road but at this point Bama is the clear favorite in the SEC. and have I mentioned Brandon Miller? He might be the best player in the Country and nobody is really discussing it. All the talk of the big men, meanwhile Brandon miller is averaging 20 ppg shooting 46% from 3, absolutely ridiculous. Pairing him with Mark Sears who was good enough to send Jahvon Quinerly to the bench makes the Tide incredibly dangerous. Oh and they went on the road and beat Houston. Mic drop.
  5. Purdue (20-1) Off (4) Def (18) – FLYER
    • It’s a historically great season happening in West Lafayette right now as the Boilers just keep racking up Big Ten wins, including a 5-0 record on the road now in Conference. The unicorn of Zach Edey surrounded by smart talented 3-star kids has proven to be too much to handle for all of these decorated teams Purdue has knocked off. Crazy what Matt Painter is doing, as he has to be the front-runner today for COY. Plus we have seen that defensive number climb climb climb and now they are knocking on the door of that elusive top-15. It could be next week when we see the Boilers enter into the Impenetrable category, but as it stands they are the best looking Flyer on the board. Zach Edey looks poised to absolutely dominate March, and is the frontrunner for NPOY. Clearly a 1 seed at this point, this is by far the programs best looking chance to finally get Matt Painter over the hump and into the Final Four for the first time. Data says watch the defense, but man Edey is a problem.
  6. Uconn (16-6) Off (11) Def (14) – IMPENETREBLE
    • Alarm bells are going off all around this program as Uconn has lost 6 out of 8 and are in complete freefall. Somehow the data still says Impenetrable, but I can’t imagine if they keep playing like this that is going to remain. Obviously, the data is not reactionary and takes into account the complete season, but who Uconn is today seems to be quite different from the Uconn we saw early in the season who started 14-0 and was killing everyone in their path. There was a time many thought this was the best team in the Country, but man has the quality of play fallen off. Defensively they are playing with much less intensity, see the 82 points they allowed Xavier to have at home, and offensively teams have found out you can leave Andre Jackson wide open and he’ll throw up brick after brick. They get DePaul and Georgetown next to get right, but my confidence in these Huskies sure has diminished.  
  7. Saint Mary’s (17-4) Off (36) Def (6) – *FLYER*
    • An improvement for the Gaels since we last met as the offense has been able to put up some points in their victories over Pepperdine and Santa Clara, not exactly a murderers row but nonetheless they keep playing winning basketball. We spoke extensively last week about what Randy Bennett has accomplished during his historic career at Saint Mary’s but he’s trying this year to de-throne the king in Gonzaga, two matchups with them remain with the first being next weekend at home. They need to knock Gonzaga off to improve their resume for March, as this wide open field appears to be Bennett’s best shot at getting this program deep into the tournament. They’ve only made it out of the first weekend once (2010) under Bennett, but they’ve also never ended the season top-10 in overall efficiency. Could this be the group?
  8. Marquette (16-5) Off (1) Def (68) – VULNERABLE
    • The only newcomer of the week is Shaka Smart’s Marquette Golden Eagles. As you would expect from a Shaka led team Marquette is playing fast, wide open and aggressive which has landed them some big time wins and now puts them as the top overall offense in the Country. As much as they impress offensively, the questions come on the defensive end as 68th puts them in the Vulnerable category. I have rambled on and on about the trouble that unbalanced teams face in March, but Marquette looks like the perfect team to enter March and suffer a 1st round upset. You see it year after year with teams who are elite offensively but don’t compete defensively. They will let a lesser opponent get hot and get some confidence which will result in their demise. See Ohio St against Oral Roberts a year ago. I love Shaka, and I love when teams play fast and free flowing, but you have to match that energy on the other end of the floor. So far, the Golden Eagles haven’t found that magic combo like an Alabama for example. If that remains the case I will absolutely be avoiding them come bracket season.
  9. Texas (17-3) Off (12) Def (27) – FLYER
    • The Longhorn appear to have righted the ship after the tumultuous few weeks that followed Chris Beard’s exit from the program. The defense has taken a hit but they still are winning games in an incredibly difficult Big 12. Offensively they look a little more freed up as Marcus Carr and Timmy Allen have really been playing well the last few weeks as the leaders of the offense. Frankly, they have so much offensive talent they absolutely should be one of the toughest teams to slow down in the country, as they have playmakers like Tyrese Hunter and Sir’Jabari Rice as well at the Guard spot and even Dylan Disu and Christian Bishop in the front court. It is a loaded roster that was a pre-season favorite for a reason. All they pressure has been vaulted onto interim HC Rodney Terry. Terry was previously a HC at UTEP and Fresno St, so he’s experienced and has proven to be a good leader as he’s kept this team from free falling after losing it’s HC. A trip to Tennessee this weekend presents a big test for how resilient this group is.
  10. Kansas (16-4) Off (25) Def (16) – *FLYER*
    • Once the obvious top overall seed in bracket projections the Jayhawks have now entered a bit of a free-fall dropping 3 straight Big 12 games in pretty convincing fashion. The small ball lineup that we have warned about has been showing its limitations as teams have gone to the paint successfully with regularity and they are really struggling to win the battle of the boards. It is difficult defensively with no shot blocking prescence and even more so when you routinely give up offensive rebounds when you do force a miss. Not to mention Jalen Wilson has been the only reliable offensive player for them, as he has had to shoulder the scoring load scoring 38/30/23 in those 3 losses. Somehow they need to get back to team rebounding and find a way to get other people going offensively or else they will fall out of this top-10. The dangerous thing is up next is trip to a desperate and improving Kentucky team who is looking for a signature win to get them on the right side of the bubble. I smell loss 4 in a row coming.

Dropped: Arizona (15)

CBB Contender Series 4.0

Welcome to the place where we go beyond traditional ranking systems. Sure, you can look at the AP top-25 or the NCAA’s NET rankings or simply Kenpom’s top-10. We’re diving deeper, acknowledging that the human eye can be misleading, and that data is the best way to approach predicting the madness come March. Don’t just take my word here for it, take a look here where I break down exactly what the data is telling me. I will be defining teams as “vulnerable” or “impenetrable” or simply “flyers”, exactly what backs up my logic for these can also found in the first article. For now, a synopsis: Vulnerable teams are the statistical archetype of a team that is likely to be upset the first weekend. Impenetrable teams are the antithesis of that, fitting the archetype of teams who almost never miss the Sweet 16. Finally the flyers, teams that don’t fit those narrow barometers but find themselves in or around the top-10. So, every week we’ll take a look at Kenpom’s 10 most efficient teams and define them, look at their week (or season if they’re new) and assess where they truly stand in the Contender vs Pretender debate. To see my initial breakdown of these teams refer to v-1, the following will be an update on the week each team had if they were also in the top-10 last week. *—–* indicates change in archetype.

  1. Houston (17-1) Off (10) Def (2) – IMPENETRABLE 
    • Another week another dominant stretch for this Houston program. 2 wins @ Cincy and at home over USF continue to hold Houston at the top of these Kenpom rankings and they now sit top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Things got a little squirrely in the win over USF as they were actually down in the 2nd half, but like most great teams they locked in when it mattered and got it done. As long as Houston brings the fight they can take down anyone, you just worry if they’ll throw a sleeper like this in the tourney. It’s unlikely, but one popping up makes us pay attention. Nonetheless, they’re still in the impenetrable category, and at top-10 in both look primed to make a run to the Final Four and cement Kelvin Sampson as one of the best coaches in college hoops history. Seeding is going to become a part of this discussion soon however, and right now Houston is barely hanging on to a 1 seed. The lack of competition in the American may hurt Houston come Selection Sunday.
  2. Tennessee (14-2) Off (31) Def (1) – FLYER
    • A 2-0 week in the SEC is always an accomplishment, but really it was a ho-hum week for the Vols as they beat 2 of the worst teams in the Conference. The continuing theme with Tennessee for us is the offensive struggles, but it is necessary to point out now that since Josiah-Jordan James has come back to the lineup they are averaging 83 ppg. Now, the competition hasn’t exactly been very great but nonetheless that is an encouraging sign for a team that has had its struggles on that end. The defense will always be there, but the scoring issues that have frankly plagued this program for a couple of years now are the hump this team has to get over. They also face a similar budding issue as Houston as their resume starts to get stagnant, they will need some big time wins in SEC play to solidify a top seed. Right now they sit on the 3 line in our latest bracket. 
  3. UCLA (15-2) Off (15) Def (4) – IMPENETRABLE
    • A dismantling of Utah slides UCLA up into the 3 slot this week as they continue to smother people defensively, just as Mick Cronin dreams about. It’s amazing to see Cronin come into a program known historically for that splashy fast paced West coast brand of basketball and immediately turn them into that mucky, grindy midwestern program he is known for. Pair that leadership ability and an early run to the Final 4 in his 2nd year and we’re talking about a guy in Mick Cronin that is seriously underrated. The slide to 15 offensively is in my opinion due to the Amari Bailey injury, as he has been an important scoring option for them, but once he’s back UCLA becomes easily one of the favorites this year to make a deep run. One last easy home game against Colorado sets them up for a trio of road games that will really tell us what we need to know about these Bruins. Arizona St, Arizona, USC all on the road. That’s when we learn. 
  4. UConn (15-3) Off (11) Def (9) – IMPENETRABLE 
    • Listen to the data, listen to the data. It is admittedly really difficult right now to believe in UConn as one of the best teams in the Country now that they’ve lost 3 out of 4 games. However, the 3 losses were on the road to really good Big East foes but that isn’t doing much for my brain and my “eye test”. The data is responding negatively as they’ve dropped from 1st to 4th overall, but it’s much more level headed than I. Again we must remember, we’re here so that the data will win, so that our dumb monkey brains don’t get in the way of what the data is telling us. And at this point it is still telling us we should believe in the Huskies. What we need from them is a little win streak, as they have a softer schedule coming up where the toughest opponents will be in their building. My brain needs a 7-game winning streak, and frankly I imagine the data does too if they want to hang on to that impenetrable tag. 
  5. Purdue (16-1) Off (1) Def (29) – FLYER
    • A 2-0 week in the Big Ten including a road win over Penn St who is scratching and clawing on the bubble is a fantastic week for these Boilers. Zach Edey continues to be the frontrunner NPOY and the defensive side of the ball is slowly but surely improving. It is of course that end of the floor that keeps Purdue in the Flyer category, but they increasingly become a Flyer that you start to feel more confident in. I’ve said it a million times throughout this series, unbalanced teams face trouble, but the movement to the better is what you want to see. And having a 7’4” unicorn inside for teams to gameplan against makes them a bit of a unique specimen when March rolls around. We’ve also documented the shooting struggles; those have subsided as that #1 offensive ranking indicates. So long as these perimeter players are knocking down shots around Edey, Purdue will remain one of the most dangerous teams in the Country. 
  6. Alabama (14-2) Off (16) Def (10) – FLYER
    • Alabama continues its meteoric rise through these rankings as they’ve now climbed from outside the top-10 to a nice and cozy 6th. They sit as close to the Impenetrable category as you can get, with the Offense just outside the top-15, but climbing. I’m starting to fall in love with this Alabama team, the length, the athleticism, the shot making ability, the defensive intensity…basketball porn these last few weeks. And let’s not forget one of the best Freshmen in the Country in Brandon Miller. The man is incredible and one of the more fascinating watches in college hoops right now as teams try and face guard him and take him away, ask Arkansas how that went. Speaking of which, Alabama went on the road and dismantled the Hogs and knocked them out of the top-10 (spoiler) and cemented themselves as a 1 seed and SEC frontrunner. A clash with Tennessee doesn’t come until mid-February but boy I cannot wait for that one. 
  7. Kansas (15-1) Off (13) Def (13) – *IMPENETRABLE*
    • We’ve talked about this years Kansas team and their small ball lineup quite a bit, as it both challenges opponents and gives them opportunity. We almost saw it come to fruition against Oklahoma last week, but the Jayhawks were able to scramble back from 10 points down with 5 minutes left to pull out another win. Kansas is playing with fire a little bit, but I’m sure Bill Self knows it. We actually saw 12 minutes from 6’10 SO Zach Clemence against the Sooners, so maybe Self is starting to feel that pull for a big man. That defensive number continues to trickle upwards though as they’ve gone from 6th – 10th – 13th over the last few weeks. Teams know they can drive the ball hard with no real shot blocking presence, pair that with a good shooting team and these Jayhawks get real vulnerable real fast. I think they might start feeling that soon. 
  8. Texas (14-2) Off (14) Def (27) – FLYER
    • Alright so I may have overreacted last week a bit, to be fair it is extremely difficult to gauge who this Texas team is right now. They remain a flyer but who knows what Texas team is going to show up night after night. Sometimes they guard well, sometimes they don’t. Sometimes the offense looks good other times it looks atrocious. Either way they went 2-0 last week in a gauntlet of a Big 12, no easy task. But, I did say I wouldn’t be writing about them again this week and here we are, so something is at least moving in a positive way. I suppose one should only assume that a mid-season coaching scandal and subsequent firing would result in a tumultuous team, I just wonder where they will land in the next few weeks. Good new, we’ll be here to document exactly that. 
  9. Saint Mary’s (15-4) Off (52) Def (5) – *VULNERABLE*
    • An addition to the top-10 and I must admit my monkey brain is again questioning the data. However, we don’t let that happen around here, in the data we trust. So, let’s figure out exactly how the Gaels of Saint Mary’s found their way to the number 9 spot. What we know about the Gaels is their led by HC of 20+ years Randy Bennett, who has consistently had this program playing great basketball on the defensive end of the floor. They have an extremely solid starting 5 that is experienced and poised to make life very difficult for Gonzaga out in the West Coast Conference this season. Could they finally dethrone the king? The thing holding them back and putting them in this vulnerable category however, is the offense. They are one of the worst FT shooting teams in the Country, and struggle from inside the arc as well. It is worth noting that this number has trickled better due to the shift into Conference play as they’ve found a groove. They still play BYU and Gonzaga twice, so we are going to find out a whole lot more about this squad in the weeks to come. For now, they remain a vulnerable top-10 team. 
  10. Arizona (15-2) Off (3) Def (63) – VULNERABLE
    • Arizona’s weakness came to haunt them this week as they faced Washington St at home and lost. The shots stopped falling and there was no defense to be found against a pretty poor offensive team. Arizona could be well on their way out of this top-10 and should be entrenched in the vulnerable category moving forward. Remember this if you remember anything about Arizona, if you have the size to limit their bigs, they are dead. The Arizona guards are not nearly as good as last season’s, and Ballo and Tubelis are forced to carry the load inside. If you can control the glass and limit those two, Arizona becomes very weak. Do not trust Arizona in March, I repeat, do not trust Arizona in March. This is why you come here, this is why we play the game. Trust in the data. 

CBB Contender Series – III

Welcome to the place where we go beyond traditional ranking systems. Sure, you can look at the AP top-25 or the NCAA’s NET rankings or simply Kenpom’s top-10. We’re diving deeper, acknowledging that the human eye can be misleading, and that data is the best way to approach predicting the madness come March. Don’t just take my word here for it, take a look here where I break down exactly what the data is telling me. I will be defining teams as “vulnerable” or “impenetrable” or simply “flyers”, exactly what backs up my logic for these can also found in the first article. For now, a synopsis: Vulnerable teams are the statistical archetype of a team that is likely to be upset the first weekend. Impenetrable teams are the antithesis of that, fitting the archetype of teams who almost never miss the Sweet 16. Finally the flyers, teams that don’t fit those narrow barometers but find themselves in or around the top-10. So, every week we’ll take a look at Kenpom’s 10 most efficient teams and define them, look at their week (or season if they’re new) and assess where they truly stand in the Contender vs Pretender debate. To see my initial breakdown of these teams refer to v-1, the following will be an update on the week each team had if they were also in the top-10 last week. *—–* indicates change in archetype.

  1. Houston (15-1) Off (12) Def (2) – IMPENETRABLE 
    • Since we last met this Cougars group has done what they are supposed to, with a peak and a valley. UCF actually came into Houston and put up a fight, but ultimately Houston got away with a close W thanks in large part to their 19 offensive rebounds. Houston is unbelievable in that respect and in their 2nd W since we last met over SMU they even surpassed that number with 21 offensive rebounds (more than SMU had defensively…) It’s never going to be pretty for Houston, but damn are they relentlessly tough. You can’t keep em off the glass, you simply can’t. That isn’t just a snapshot either, on the season they rank 1st in the country in offensive rebounding. When most people think of difficult offenses to stop, they picture elite shooters or maybe a dominant post man, Houston has none of that. They just get multiple shots at it on an insane number of possessions. Much is made about the game of basketball getting soft, let me tell you if you walk into a game against Houston and are soft, you’ll be pissing down your leg come halftime, just ask SMU. An interesting test at Cincy awaits this team, but it’s looking like Houston might not lose another game, they are that good (and the American Conf is that bad).
  2. Tennessee (12-2) ) Off (38) Def (1) – *FLYER*
    • The Vols had a rare offensive explosion to move them from the “vulnerable” category into the “flyer” category as they dropped 87 on what had been an elite defensive team in Mississippi St. Josiah-Jordan James is back after a month out and he hit 2 threes, another shooter helps this group a lot. However, as we’ve discussed here many times unbalanced teams can struggle so we’ll be watching to see if this was just a flash in the pan or if they can continue to knock down shots with more consistency. Obviously, as the top ranked team defensively this group can hang their hat on that end, but in their 2 losses it was the offensive end let them down and that has also led to some close games that shouldn’t have been so close. A couple rare SEC cupcakes await, but we will be finding out more about this Vols group as we get deeper into January. 
  3. UConn (14-2) Off (9) Def (5) – IMPENETRABLE 
    • Admittedly it’s tough to hang on to that “Impenetrable” tag after watching the Huskies go 0-2 in the last week, but we must trust the data. 2 tough losses on the road against 2 really good Big East teams is certainly nothing to panic about. The worry appears to be on the defensive end, as they got gashed by both Xavier and Providence, allowing 83 and 73 respectively which was the most and 2nd most they had given up all season. Now, this could be a wakeup call, get the engines humming again after the holidays, or it’s a warning sign that maybe the hype wasn’t all that justified. Good news is we have 2 months to watch it shake out. For now, the data still points to UConn being one of the favorites to make a run come March. And here we trust the data. But falling from 1-3 in the rankings is a negative trend that must be acknowledged. Consider it acknowledged. 
  4. UCLA (14-2) Off (10) Def (7) – IMPENETRABLE
    • A 3-0 week in the Pac-12 for the Bruins since we last met, not bad considering they are without star Freshman Amari Bailey. That included 2 road wins over the Washington teams as well as a home win last night over USC. Very impressive week for the Bruins as they continue to embody Mick Cronin’s tough minded/scrappy style. The Pac-12 has some imbalance as the teams at the bottom are pretty bad, but there will be some real tests coming for UCLA, with the ultimate being a Jan 21 visit to Arizona. In terms of consistency and building momentum I would put UCLA right with Houston right now at the top of the true contender list. UConn right there but the negative trend is worrisome in this snapshot of time. Look forward to seeing UCLA face the bigger challenges that await them. 
  5. Kansas (13-1) Off (13) Def (10) – *IMPENETRABLE*
    • A road win over Texas Tech in which they dropped 75 points on 67 possessions was good enough to tilt them into the “Impenetrable” category. They have been back and forth from Flyer to Impenetrable so it’s tough to get a gauge on where they sit, but one thing is for sure is they are an elite team. Now, the defense is starting to get exposed which I would directly attribute to their lack of a big man, as I’ve written about before. The small ball lineup is fascinating, but as teams adjust we may see Kansas get exposed a bit defensively and see that ranking drift upwards. A trip tomorrow to W. Virginia presents another tough road game against a tourney quality opponent. What W. Virginia has that Texas Tech doesn’t is a combo of bigs Tre Mitchell and Jimmy Bell at 6’9” and 6’10” respectively that are going to challenge Kansas in the paint. Rebounding will be huge, and we’ll see just how effective this small ball lineup can be against some quality bigs. 
  6. Purdue (14-1) Off (4) Def (32) – FLYER
    • A roller-coaster week for the AP #1 Boilers as they lost in rare fashion at home to Rutgers in the dying moments only to head to Columbus and beat Ohio St in almost identical fashion. We have spoken at great length about this top-5 ranked offense and it’s poor shooting stretch over the last few weeks, but the trip to Ohio St saw them jolt right out of that slump as they hit 13 threes and scored 71 points on 60 possessions. Zach Edey is still a unicorn and matchup nightmare, but what makes Purdue dangerous is when the surrounding cast can knockdown shots. The defense shows some weaknesses as well, keeping them deep into the flyer category. What they can’t rely on is to get consistent stops when the offense goes cold, see the Rutgers loss. That is what makes it tough to win 3-4-5-6 games in a row against great competition in March.
  7. Arizona (14-1) Off (1) Def (55) – VULNERABLE
    • Arizona’s defensive numbers are crawling in the right direction as they beat up on lesser competition, but they remain in the vulnerable category this week. A win over Washington isn’t going to do much for anybody and they welcome Washington St next, who again doesn’t represent much of a challenge to opponents’ defenses. Again, unbalanced teams such as this statistically struggle to make it out of the first weekend, so as the Pac-12 season continues on we will be tracking this defense to see if any improvements are made. Last week they were 67th, so certainly a move in the right direction, can they sustain it? That’s why we’re here every week. 
  8. Alabama (12-2) Off (19) Def (12) – FLYER
    • A home blowout of Ole Miss really doesn’t change what we believe about Alabama here, but the improvement offensively was nice to see as they inch closer to the Impenetrable category. If you read my breakdown last week, you know I love Nate Oats, but the fear with Alabama is how out of control they can get on both ends of the floor. His style is fast paced, aggressive and essentially an all-out siege for 40 minutes. What has happened when this Alabama team has gotten in trouble this year is they get undisciplined defensively and turn the ball over offensively. Bama has gone from not in our top-10 to 9th last week to now 8th. Great progress, but the next step is to see them take on an elite opponent and stay poised and under control. Next time we meet they will have played Kentucky and Arkansas, we may just get what we ask for. 
  9. Arkansas (12-2) Off (39) Def (4) – FLYER
    • The Hogs are grinding out wins right now without one of their best scorers Nick Smith, who has been out a while but has left a hole for Arkansas on offense. On the flip side the defense continues to strengthen as they just held a red hot Missouri team to 68 points. This is just another team that has to rely on stops and cross their fingers they can knock down enough shots. The stat the embodies that is their 3 pt shooting, as they rank 317th in the country from deep. It is really tough to imagine if that continues they will be able to make a run, but hey they still fall into the Flyer category and have hope of a Nick Smith return. Stranger things have happened. 
  10. Texas (12-2) Off (7) Def (41) – FLYER
    • Please refer to last week’s edition if the following doesn’t make sense. What did I tell you? Chris Beard has now been officially fired and this may be the last edition I get to write about the Texas Longhorns. With Beard at the helm Texas was a top-10 defensive team, they now rank 41st and are free-falling game by game. They fell from 6th to 10th overall and the program might be taking a turn as we speak for complete destruction. Hopefully, for the good of college basketball they get their shit together, but for now this team is in free fall after giving up 116 points in a HOME LOSS to Kansas St. In what world could you imagine a Chris Beard (potential bad guy) coached team giving up 116 points?? I don’t have proof but I guarantee that never happened. A trip to Oklahoma St could be a pivotal moment for this group, because if they get ran through again I can’t imagine that train could get back on the tracks.